Gale Warning 12, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
417 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...
A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING TODAY. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE NAM BRINGS THE STRONGEST
JET DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE. SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A STRONGER
LLJ LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE LATTER SCENARIO WOULD ACTUALLY
BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED DUE TO THICK
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THE STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONGER JET WINDS OCCUR
DURING THE DAY TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE
THREAT REMAINS LOW.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF A QUASI-LINEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
REGARDLESS...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH. VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WED...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY.
OTHER THAN FOR A COUPLE OF WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SE
GA AS THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS TO THE NE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SKIES CLEARING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTN FOR MOST AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION UNDER
BREEZY TO WINDY W/NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING
LITTLE FOR EARLY MORNING READINGS...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FOR SE
GA...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF NE FL.

WED NIGHT/THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION WED NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE. WITH WINDS
DECREASING EXPECT NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH A
FREEZE LIKELY FOR FAR INLAND LOCATIONS...AND LOWS APPROACHING
FREEZING AS FAR EAST AS I-95. DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FOR SE
GA/NE FL...AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NE DURING THE DAY...WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINING OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LONG TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT COASTAL TROUGHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER E/NE FLOW. WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKING RATHER LIMITED...WILL
KEEP POPS SLIGHT CHANCE CLOSE TO THE COAST...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FURTHER INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AND RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. STRONGER STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY OCCUR MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT.
REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. VERY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO TRAIL THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN COMES TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST FLOW 20-25 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM 5-7 FT NEARSHORE TO 7-10 FT OFFSHORE. A LINE OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
WATERS TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO ACCOUNT
FOR GALES UP TO AROUND 40 TO POSSIBLY 45 KNOTS WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GALES CONTINUE OFFSHORE...WITH HIGH
END SCA NEARSHORE WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH
A BIT WED NIGHT/THU TO SCA OFFSHORE AND CAUTION NEARSHORE. WITH
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT
CAUTION TO SCA CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  48  54  27 /  90  90  20   0
SSI  71  52  60  41 /  90  90  20   0
JAX  76  55  59  32 /  90  90  10   0
SGJ  78  59  63  42 /  90  90  10   0
GNV  76  57  60  30 /  80  90  10   0
OCF  79  59  65  32 /  80  90  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHULER/ALLEN/

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