Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE HEAT
ADVISORY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS FOR THE
PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE
WAS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THIS WAS NOTED
BY THE SFC-700 MB INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION.
AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND THE INVERTED TROUGH. PWATS WERE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING
NORTH ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS.

AS FAR AS THE HEAT ADVISORY IS CONCERN WILL LET THE AREA THAT
EXCLUDES THE DELTA REGION TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND ALLOW
THE DELTA REGION TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM SATURDAY. WILL ADD WARREN COUNTY
AND MADISON PARISH TO THE ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY...SINCE TVR HAS MID
70S DEWPOINTS.  TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION. HEAT INDICES IN THE
DELTA REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE 105 TO AROUND 109.  AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY
WE WILL GET A SLIGHT RELIEF AS HEAT INDICES WILL BE FROM 100 TO 104.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE MEAN RIDGE. THE FIRST INVERTED
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A SECOND INVERTED TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO KEEP DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WESTERLIES WILL DIP DOWN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO SEND A WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTH FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A STRONG STORM OR
TWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
BRIEF DOWN POURS. THUS WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO. COULD SEE SOME
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH. AS THE FLOW FROM THE PASSING INVERTED TROUGH AND AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US CONTINUES MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR POPS MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO DRYER GUIDANCE. ON ZONES WILL BE A
PREFIRST PERIOD DUE TO CURRENT CONVECTION./17/

.LONGTERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES AN EAST-WEST
DRAPED SURFACE FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH A "FLAT" SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ARKLAMISS THAT EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO OUR EAST KEEPING
WARM/HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF IN PLACE. FROM THERE IT
APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE HEADED INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND HEIGHTS
FALL ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME ACTIVITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN
PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THIS PATTERN. THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND FALLING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST/GENERALLY LOWER 90S. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS LOOK TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING OUT OF ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL
OMIT MENTION OF ANY SPECIFICS IN THE HWO.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR AREAWIDE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS OCCURS. ALTHOUGH SPECIFICS ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL DRIFT ALL THE
WAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS BY LATE THU OR SOMETIME FRI ALLOWING DRIER
AIR TO FILTER IN...A WELCOME CHANGE CONSIDERING THE STRETCH OF HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER WE'VE BEEN THROUGH RECENTLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE MUCH ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK
AND HOPEFULLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THE GFS MOS POPS/TEMPS LOOKED
REASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE. /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTN TSTM COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOSTLY BETWEEN GWO-GTR AND
ACROSS THE SE THROUGH 19Z BUT ACTIVITY WL SPREAD INTO CNTRL MS
BEFORE 00Z SAT. TSTM DVLPMNT WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL 09Z SAT. AFTER 09Z PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS WL BE PSBL UNTIL 13Z. BY 14Z VFR CONDS WL RESUME
AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTN/EVNG TSTMS BECOME ISOLD/SCT AGAIN.  /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  95  73  96 /  15  29  17  21
MERIDIAN      73  95  70  95 /  15  30  17  22
VICKSBURG     76  96  72  95 /  15  30  18  20
HATTIESBURG   75  95  74  95 /  19  31  17  34
NATCHEZ       74  93  72  92 /  18  40  17  34
GREENVILLE    75  96  73  95 /  19  37  26  25
GREENWOOD     73  96  73  95 /  18  43  28  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
     040-041-047.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026-027-036-042-
     043-048-049-053-054-059>062.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

17/22/BK/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053-054-059>062-101945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
239 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE BETWEEN MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING
STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-101945-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
239 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AS
WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH STRONG STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

22

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