Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...WITH A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINING
IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA. FOR
EASTERN MS...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED THE 105
HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BRINGING ENOUGH
RELIEF TO KEEP THIS AREA OUT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SATURDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS HOT AS FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SOME...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER
90S WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. /27/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LEAVING A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS...AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS IN THIS PATTERN...WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS
PREVAILING DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS DO SUGGEST SOME RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WE'LL
BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT. DON'T SEE ANYTHING GLARING THAT REQUIRES
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST YET. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE RUNNING A
TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WHERE A FEW SITES COULD CLIMB BACK ABOVE
95. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE HOW HOT INDIVIDUAL
AREAS ACTUALLY GET.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT BACK WEST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING OUR WAY IN RESPONSE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.
THE MODELS ARE NOT CERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH OR HOW FAST THAT
BOUNDARY MIGHT MOVE INTO OUR AREA COME MID WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY LATE WED WHILE THE GFS
ISN'T NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE...SO THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON HOW THAT
WILL EVOLVE. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE'LL GET SOME REPRIEVE
FROM THE HEAT GIVEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND MAYBE (JUST
MAYBE) SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BY MID TO LATE WEEK. /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE FOR AREAS OF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MVFR CATEGORY
FOG AS WELL AS REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS WITH THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
FOR THE GTR/MEI/HBG/PIB AREA. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  95  74  93 /  11  32  21  35
MERIDIAN      73  93  72  94 /  18  44  21  27
VICKSBURG     75  97  74  93 /   9  21  18  37
HATTIESBURG   75  93  75  95 /  12  57  17  31
NATCHEZ       75  95  74  92 /   8  37  17  50
GREENVILLE    75  98  75  94 /  12  12  23  40
GREENWOOD     75  97  74  94 /  12  18  26  42

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>043-047>049-053-054-059>062.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

27/BK/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
216 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053-054-059>062-091930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
216 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE BETWEEN MIDDAY AND LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOWS TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S. THE AREA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR MAY BE AT OR NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY DUE TO BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-091930-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
216 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

17

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MSZ030-031-033-082350-
OKTIBBEHA MS-LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-
549 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
549 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF WEST POINT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF WEST POINT AT 548 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CLAY...WESTERN LOWNDES AND NORTHEASTERN OKTIBBEHA
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3334 8841 3340 8865 3357 8886 3373 8875
      3373 8871 3368 8871 3369 8850 3367 8849
      3368 8841 3370 8840 3370 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 300DEG 15KT 3360 8871

BYB