Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.UPDATE...LATEST REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS AREA RADARS SHOWED
A MCC OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...WHICH WAS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY. LOCALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHICH EXTENDED INTO OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS CONTINUED ITS GRIP
ACROSS THE REGION. LZK AND SHV SOUNDINGS SHOWED BETTER LOW LEVEL
WARMING OR CAPPING WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE. LOCAL AND NATIONAL WRF
MODELS SHOWED THAT THE NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN...WHILE THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE OF
RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA ACROSS MOST OF
THE WEST. CURRENT POPS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 90S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WEST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH HEAT INDICES FROM NEAR 100 DEGREES EAST TO AROUND
105 DEGREES WEST./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...451 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN OVER NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN LOCATIONS AS HEAT INDICES REACH 103-108F AND SOME STRONG
STORM POTENTIAL IN THE EAST DURING EACH AFTERNOON.

LATEST REGIONAL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A
DECAYING SHOWER COMPLEX OVER N MS WITH A MORE ROBUST MCS NOTED OVER
SRN MO. THE MCS OVER MO WILL STAY NORTH OF THE ARKLAMISS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MORE POTENT TROUGHING THERE BUT CONTINUED SUBTLE
S/WV TROUGHING IN NW FLOW AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE H7-H3 RIDGE
WILL TRICKLE ACROSS NE MS THIS AFTN. LIKE YESTERDAY, THIS EXTRA LIFT
IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUPPORTIVE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONCE AGAIN. FEEL OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AS A WHOLE AND GENERALLY CONFINED EAST I-55. SOME STORMS
COULD AGAIN BE STRONG WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
PWATS STILL QUITE ELEVATED NEAR 2" PER LATEST 00Z KJAN SOUNDING. IT
IS ALSO NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH
SOME INDICATIONS OF VERTICAL TOTALS IN NE MS APPROACHING 27-28C AND
OUTFLOW MERGERS. HOWEVER, THIS RISK WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED AND WILL
NOT SPECIFICALLY MENTION IT IN HWO/GRAPHICS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
STRONG STORM WORDING. ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE
SLOWLY COOL OVRNGT.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY IS THE HEAT FOR TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW.
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND COULD BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY. CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BE UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF SUPPRESSIVE RIDGING AND SEE
LESS CLOUDS/RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY AND WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE
103-107F REALM THIS AFTN FOR A PERIOD OF 2-3 HOURS. IN ADDITION...
MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 75F OVRNGT INTO WED MRNG,
CONTINUING THE HEAT STRESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS SOME
LOCATIONS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES WILL APPROACH THE 100F MARK AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER TX/LA. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE
104-108F REALM FOR 2-4 HOURS FOR AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HEAT
ADVISORY. DON'T FEEL THAT AREAS IN S MS WILL REACH CRITERIA WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMP/DEW POINT COMBOS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE PUSHED
A BIT MORE EAST WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. A FEW PULSE STORMS AGAIN COULD BE STRONG GIVEN ROBUST
SURFACE HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY TOO, WILL DIMINISH WED EVENING.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...MAV POPS WERE BUMPED UP 5-10% IN EAST AREAS
AND DECREASED ABOUT THE SAME IN FAR WESTERN SPOTS. MAV TEMPS WERE
FAVORED OVER COOLER MET AND IN LINE WITH EC MOS VALUES. /ALLEN/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE HOT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON ARKLAMISS
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MET THURSDAY
AS THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE ONLY VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING/COOLING AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED --- WILL THUS CONTINUE TO
MENTION HEAT STRESS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE HEAT ADVISORIES IN
THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE
SUPPRESSED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
AMPLIFIES...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS
AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER AMPLIFICATION
AND LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE ARKLAMISS THAN THE GFS/GEFS. IF THIS
HAPPENS THEN GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...SUCH BREAK DOWN IN THE
RIDGE IS FAR FROM CERTAIN.

CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL: EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND THIS COULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY ALSO INCREASE IF THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WESTERLIES TO SHIFT FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF
I-55. THIS WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VIS TO SITES THAT SEE A
STORM. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
CEILINGS OR VIS NOT EXPECTED. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  75  98  76 /  36  10  17   8
MERIDIAN      92  73  96  74 /  53  18  38  17
VICKSBURG     97  75  98  74 /  17  10  12   7
HATTIESBURG   96  76  98  76 /  47  16  35   9
NATCHEZ       95  75  95  74 /  13  10  12   7
GREENVILLE    97  75  99  76 /  29  10  11   7
GREENWOOD     95  75  99  74 /  48  12  14  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-
     034>036-040>043-047>049-053.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

17/28/ALLEN/EC/

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MSZ029-061950-
WEBSTER MS-
222 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
222 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER BELLEFONTAINE AT 222 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3354 8908 3353 8909 3353 8918 3352 8923
      3351 8930 3347 8936 3366 8949 3372 8930
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 324DEG 13KT 3364 8933

JC