Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

ITS BEEN ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
NEAR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FOCUSED
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 49 CORRIDOR FURTHER FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH 9-10PM ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

A SIMILAR OVERALL SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW ALTHOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL HAVE RETREATED OFF TO OUR NE.
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS LOOK TO GET QUITE WARM ONCE AGAIN/SIMILAR
TO TODAY/WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE 105 DEGREES
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS THAT WENT INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE'VE
ALREADY SEEN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY. OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET TO 75 ALLOWING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. ITS VERY POSSIBLE
THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS H5
HEIGHTS RISE AND SFC MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW
LOOK TO BE CONFINED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE MAY END UP
BEING ALONG/E OF I-55. JUST LIKE TODAY A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WILL ADD THIS POTENTIAL TO THE AFTERNOON HWO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING AND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE HEADED INTO WED
WITH THE BEST DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE ALONG/E OF I-55 DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ONLY DIVERGENCE FROM GFS MOS WAS FOR TOMORROW WHERE HIGHS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN A TAD EAST OF I-55...OTHERWISE GUIDANCE VALUES LOOKED
REASONABLE. /BK/

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS WEEK...DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARKLAMISS. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING GIVEN PRESENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS INDICATE SOME
SUPPRESSION/BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AS WE GO LATER IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD ALLOW A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND RESULT IN INCREASED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVNG THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD
INCREASE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION MAY HELP
TO TEMPER HEAT STRESS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CIGS/VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR/MVFR
LEVELS. THE PRIMARY LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-55 WITH MOST ACTIVITY ENDING BY 03Z. BRIEF DOWNPOURS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z. PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
08Z. LCL MVFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FOG THROUGH 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  97  75  98 /  12  37  10  17
MERIDIAN      73  95  73  98 /  32  55  16  29
VICKSBURG     75  97  75  98 /  12  22   5  12
HATTIESBURG   74  95  76  98 /  23  51  11  33
NATCHEZ       75  95  75  97 /  12  23   5  13
GREENVILLE    75  98  75 100 /  17  24   8  12
GREENWOOD     74  97  75 100 /  31  39  16  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034>036-
     040>043-047>049-053.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

BK/OLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

MSZ026>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-054>058-063>066-072>074-062015-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
312 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

ONE OR TWO STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH AS WELL
AS SOME SMALL HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH
THESE STORMS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053-062015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-
312 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

ONE OR TWO STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH AS WELL
AS SOME SMALL HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH
STRONG STORMS.

VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LAZ026-MSZ059>062-062015-
CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
312 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03

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MSZ065-066-073-074-052100-
LAMAR MS-JONES MS-FORREST MS-COVINGTON MS-
316 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
316 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

...SHORT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST TO INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF SANFORD TO 8 MILES
SOUTH OF SUMRALL AT 315 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON...NORTHERN FORREST...SOUTHWESTERN
JONES AND NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3124 8964 3167 8949 3151 8908 3143 8910
      3143 8914 3128 8914 3110 8918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 290DEG 16KT 3157 8944 3129 8952

BYB

MSZ033-052150-
OKTIBBEHA MS-
404 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

...STRONG STORM MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKTIBBEHA COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
WAS LOCATED OVER LONGVIEW AT 404 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN OKTIBBEHA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3329 8874 3328 8874 3329 8896 3334 8907
      3351 8898 3341 8867 3329 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 296DEG 13KT 3339 8893

BYB