Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE
THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING BAND OF STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WHICH SHOULD STALL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
OUR WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT INSTABILITY WILL WAIN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SHEAR IS WEAKER THE FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR CWA. THE UPDATED LOCAL WET
MICROBURST CHECKLIST FROM THE 18Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWED LOWER
POTENTIAL THAN THIS MORNING AND LESS LOW LEVEL FLOW.

SO FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
SWINGING EAST OVER THE OZARKS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NW MOST ZONES BY MIDNIGHT AND BE NEAR THE
NATCHEZ TRACE BY SUNRISE AND EXIT OUR SE ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE AREA ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
WILL BE STABILIZED BY THE EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASED BY THE TIME THE
FRONT ARRIVES. THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE OUR NE LOUISIANA PARISHES INTO
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON AND
THAT AREA SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. WIND AND HAIL
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS. A DRIER AIRMASS AND SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK MORNING LOWS BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT STILL IN THE 80S. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PATTERN IN MEDIUM RANGE. QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE
FOR EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AS PW VALUES FALL TO WELL BELOW 1 INCH BY EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK
MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO RESUME SOMETIME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO HOW MUCH
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH A WARM CORE SYSTEM MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO BRING OUT OF A FESTERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A STRONGER LOW ON THE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA WOULD LIKELY TO
DEEPER/STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...RESULTING IN A
SLOWER RETURN IN MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES. OBVIOUSLY A WEAKER LOW
SHOULD HAVE THE OPPOSITE IMPACT. FOR NOW WILL ACCEPT GRADUAL
RETURN/INCREASE OF POPS TO THE REGION THU THROUGH SAT. WITH WNW FLOW
ALOFT COULD SEE SOME MORE ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY TRY TO PUSH OUR WAY
AT TIMES...AND BECAUSE OF THIS WILL NOT COMPLETELY LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES TO AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE AND WERE
ACCEPTED. AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM LOWEST READINGS AROUND 60 TUE MORNING. MAXES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 THROUGH THE PERIOD. /AEG/

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH HWY-82
CORRIDOR HAS IMPACTED KGLH/KGWO OVER PAST HOUR WITH IFR CONDS AS VIS
DROPS TO 1SM AT TIMES IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS HAVE ALSO GUSTED TO
35 KT FROM THE NW WITH THIS COMPLEX. THE COMPLEX WILL IMPACT KGTR
2045-2145Z WITH SIMILAR IFR CONDS. THIS COMPLEX WL STAY NORTH OF
CNTRL TAF SITES BUT SCATTERED AIRMASS SHRA/TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION WITH SITES GENERALLY VFR. AIRMASS TSRA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH 02/02Z BUT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. HAVE
PLACED VCTS/SH DUE TO LOW TIMING CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDS RETURN
OVRNGT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  85  64  84 /  64  59  17   5
MERIDIAN      71  86  64  86 /  54  60  34   8
VICKSBURG     71  84  61  85 /  82  28  12   4
HATTIESBURG   72  89  68  88 /  29  60  29  11
NATCHEZ       72  84  63  85 /  39  43  14   3
GREENVILLE    70  82  61  82 /  82  19   9   4
GREENWOOD     70  83  60  82 /  84  27  13   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/AEG/ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>042-047-021945-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
WARREN-
239 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF WEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA
BUT THE TORNADO RISK IS LOW. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>037-021945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
239 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED ALONG AN A LINE MOVING THROUGH THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AS WELL
AS SOME SMALL HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH STRONG STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL WANE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

MSZ038-039-043>046-048>066-072>074-021945-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
239 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL...EAST AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
STORMS WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN

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MSZ058-012110-
CLARKE MS-
341 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CLARKE COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRANDALL
AT 341PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3199 8846 3189 8847 3185 8863 3183 8879
      3185 8882 3211 8858 3200 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 222DEG 15KT 3186 8867

BYB

MSZ030-031-012145-
LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-
413 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...A LINE OF GUSTY STORMS MOVING THROUGH COLUMBUS AREA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 45 MPH WIND
GUSTS WAS LOCATED FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CALEDONIA TO 10 MILES
WEST OF CRAWFORD AT 413 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND LOWNDES COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3329 8830 3329 8867 3349 8866 3367 8847
      3367 8843 3370 8840 3369 8837 3375 8832
      3375 8825 3374 8824 3368 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 285DEG 24KT 3376 8824 3327 8877

BYB