Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOCUS FOR THIS SHORT TERM WILL BE ON STORMS TODAY WITH
A SHIFT TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

MAIN FEATURES THAT WILL DRIVE THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NW PARTS OF
THE CWA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS A MOIST AXIS AT 850MB
EMANATING FROM NE LA. ALOFT WE HAVE A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
SPINNING ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH SPOKES OF LIFT ROTATING AROUND
THIS FEATURE (EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY). A COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES LOOKS TO COMBINE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND SPARK SHOWERS/TSRA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE AIDED
BY INCREASING LIFT FROM A RIGHT REAR JET QUAD THAT WILL BE SPREADING
OVER THE CWA. THE TRICK IS TRYING TO TIME WHEN/WHERE THIS WILL ALL
OCCUR. CURRENT PRECIP ACTIVITY OVER THE SE WAS NEVER INDICATED BY
ANY MODEL DATA AND NOT SURE WHAT IMPACT IT MAY HAVE ON LATER
ACTIVITY. IF ANY THING...IT WILL SERVE TO LIMIT ANY CAP AND KEEP
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HIGH. LEANING ON THE PROJECTION OF MASS FIELDS
FROM VARIOUS MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL GET AN
EARLY START. THIS MAKES SENSE AS ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONGER
LIFT WILL EXIST OVER THE CWA AND THERE WILL BE LESS CAPPING ALONG
WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THANKS TO THE SLOW MOVING COOL
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND E/SE
OF A VICKSBURG TO STARKVILLE LINE. DUE TO THE LIKELY EARLY START...I
WILL PROGRESS ACTIVITY SOONER TO THE E AND OUT OF THE CWA FOR LATER
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY
DISTURBANCE.

AS FOR STRONG/SVR POTENTIAL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE AS
FAVORABLE LIKE YESTERDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE OVERALL MUCH MORE
STORMS THUS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRONG ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME LINGERING STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
MUCH OF THE AIRMASS WAS UNTOUCHED FROM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DATA
SUPPORTS THE LAPSE RATES BECOMING WEAKER AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
ADDITIONALLY...THE EXPECTED TIMING IS IN THE DIURNAL MIN FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DOESN'T LOOK TO GET REACHED FROM
THE EARLY START OF CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE QUITE A
BIT LESS AS WELL. WITH ALL OF THIS...ENOUGH INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN
PLACE FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF INTERACTING STORMS...LIFT MAY GET
ENHANCED AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS SOME ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR OVER PREV STORM HIT LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AS
THE PREV MENTION COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH SOME WET GROUND...LOOKS TO SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME AREAS COULD GET DENSE FOG...BUT
WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT TO AGGRESSIVELY AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IT INTO THE GRIDS.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NGT...QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.
GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS TO LOWS MONDAY NGT.
/CME/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ARKLAMISS ON TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE AN INCH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL KICK OFF SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-20. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A DEVELOPING
CUT OFF LOW SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY WET PERIOD AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 TO
1.7 INCHES. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE WIND
FIELDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY
STRONG. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THE MODELS DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A DRIER
COOLER WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. STUCK
PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LITTLE ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT./15/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST RESTRICTED CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE MVFR
CEILINGS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD AT A FEW SITES THAT SEE
IFR CEILINGS BEFORE THINGS TREND/HOLD AT MVFR THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA AND THAT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO TIME JUST RIGHT. MAIN
AREAS TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE GTR/JAN/HKS/MEI/HBG. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 19-21Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS TO INCREASE QUIET A BIT AFTER 06-09Z
AND WILL INTRODUCE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN SITES. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  56  82  56 /  62   5   2   3
MERIDIAN      76  53  80  53 /  77  12   1   3
VICKSBURG     77  55  81  57 /  44   2   3   4
HATTIESBURG   76  57  81  57 /  72  13   3   6
NATCHEZ       77  58  79  59 /  63   3   4   6
GREENVILLE    76  56  82  59 /  16   0   0   2
GREENWOOD     76  53  82  56 /  27   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/15/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013

LAZ024>026-MSZ038-039-043>066-072>074-291000-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
500 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF A VICKSBURG TO STARKVILLE LINE. THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025>037-040>042-
291000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
500 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

CME

MSZ049-281225-
RANKIN MS-
643 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
643 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER BRANDON AT 644 AM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3214 9002 3231 9011 3247 8976 3236 8973
      3224 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 244DEG 23KT 3227 8996

DHB