Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL...IT HAS BEEN
QUIETER THIS AFTERNOON THAN EARLIER EXPECTED BUT SEVERE STORMS STILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE GOING INTO THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF MID 70 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER 60 DEW POINTS WAS NOTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT THE STOUT
CAP ON THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING WEAKENED AS NOTED ON THE 18Z JAN
SOUNDING BUT...HAS STILL INHIBITED CONVECTION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE OCCURRED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST TONIGHT. MODELS INSIST THAT A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
AND TRACK ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. THERE
HAS BEEN DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THIS LOW WOULD GET AND TIMING
ISSUES BUT THIS LOW APPEARS TO REMAIN TOO BROAD AND WEAK TO GET
CONVECTION GOING THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN
SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA.
CONSIDERING OUR AIRMASS...PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TRACK OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS AREA
MAY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN THIS
EVENING. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR SINCE EARLY FRIDAY AND ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME AREA TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST INTO ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING THE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NE ARKANSAS AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA. MODELS SHOW A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIX DOWN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS HAS PROMPTED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH COOLER IN OUR NORTH THAN TODAY...MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
EVENING AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR
FREEZING. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGHING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST HELPING TO
DECOUPLE THE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED LEADING TO MORNING LOWS BELOW FREEZING AT MOST
SITES BY TUESDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...THINGS QUIET DOWN IN THE LONG TERM AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME CALM WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS AROUND 60 UNDER
CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID CUT BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS A BIT IN THE
USUAL COOLER LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT./15/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION AT MIDAFTERNOON. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR CIGS WAS NOTED ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES IN FOR THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR STRONG STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WILL PUT IN TAFS
WHEN HAIL BECOMES IMMINENT IN THE SHORT TERM(A FEW HOURS IN
ADVANCE). IT WILL BE WINDY  AND DRY ESP AROUND THE DELTA REGION FOR
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  65  34  55 /  98  12   5   6
MERIDIAN      58  68  33  58 / 100  23   7   9
VICKSBURG     53  64  34  55 /  90   9   5   5
HATTIESBURG   66  72  35  59 /  74   9   5   4
NATCHEZ       55  63  33  55 /  74   7   5   4
GREENVILLE    53  55  32  52 /  97  22   7   5
GREENWOOD     53  60  31  52 / 100  25   8   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>052.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

22/17/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>066-072>074-242030-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
323 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED AIR
MASS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL. AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND WHERE
DRAINAGE IS POOR.

IN ADDITIONS...THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OF AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. THUS A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-241945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
323 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO AN UNSTABLE AND
SHEARED AIR MASS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALL HAIL SIZE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
RATES WILL LIKELY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS CAN EXPECT
RISES IN WATER LEVELS. CONSIDERING HEAVY RAIN MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVED YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO AROUND 40 MPH. THUS A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

17

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