Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WARMTH AND MOISTURE HAVE PRIMED A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH. LOOK FOR
ADDED WARMTH ALONG WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURGE OF MOISTURE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA WILL
BE LATER THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG ASCENT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HELP REMOVE THE CAP. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. SOME DISCRETE
ACTIVITY LOOKS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE NW PART OF THE
CWA AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING LINE. THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY LIFT NNE
AND POSE A TORNADO AND DMG WIND RISK. AS WE MOVE LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...THE LINE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINATE AS IT EVOLVES EASTWARD.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS (60-80 MPH POSSIBLE) AND TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG. AS FOR HEAVY RAIN...NOT TOO CONCERNED AS QUICK MOVEMENT AND
EVOLUTION LOOKS TO KEEP MOST PRECIP TOTALS AROUND .5 TO 1.0 INCH.
STILL...RAINS WILL BE EFFICIENT AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE A VERY
QUICK 1 INCH. AS FOR TIMING...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A BROAD WINDOW
ACROSS THE W/NW TO CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF PRE-LINE ACTIVITY AND THEN
THE ACTUAL LINE ITSELF.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
30S. /27/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY AS WELL
AS MONDAY. THIS FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS IN A GENERALLY QUIETER
PATTERN.

AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM A MUCH MORE QUIET AND COOLER
PATTERN WILL COME ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE WILL
GET BACK TO MORE NORMAL JANUARY CLIMATE TYPE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE MOST PART. MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. THEY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IT WILL STALL AS A SHORT WAVE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVING
THE REGION A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER STABLE FOR SHOWERS ONLY. THE EURO
WAS A LITTLE FASTER IN BRINGING THE RAINS IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
SO LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER EURO SOLUTION...BUT NOT THE HIGHER EURO
POPS FOR MONDAY. THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WE GET SOME POST FRONTAL ISENTROPIC LIFT.

ON TEMPS WENT WITH A BLEND OF MEX...GMOS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
ON POPS WENT WITH A BLEND OF MEX AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY. ON POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF
MEX AND EURO GUIDANCE...LEANING CLOSER TO LOWER MEX GUIDANCE. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25KTS AND GUSTS TO 35KTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW
TAF SITES. SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN TIME PERIOD TO AFFECT KGLH/KGWO BEING
03Z-09Z. TIME PERIOD AFFECTING KJAN/KMEI/KHBG/KHKS/KGTR BEING
08Z-12Z. MAIN IMPACTS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 55-60KTS. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AND WITH STORMS. CONDITIONS CLEAR AFTER 12-14Z WEDNESDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  64  32  59 / 100  32  10   5
MERIDIAN      64  68  31  58 /  90  63  13   5
VICKSBURG     56  62  31  61 /  99  14   7   5
HATTIESBURG   66  67  33  59 /  87  63   9   5
NATCHEZ       56  61  31  60 /  97  13   7   5
GREENVILLE    53  55  31  58 / 100  14   5   5
GREENWOOD     57  61  30  59 / 100  15   8   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023-025.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

27/17/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-
040>042-047-302115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
WARREN-
315 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
BRING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME
TORNADOES. DUE TO A RARE COMBINATION OF INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
80 MPH AND A STRONG TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 9PM
AND 3AM BEFORE MOVING EAST.

AHEAD OF THIS SEVERE WEATHER...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 AND 30 MPH WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOCATIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LAZ024-026-MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-302115-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
315 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR  MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADOES. DUE TO A RARE COMBINATION OF INTENSE WIND SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME HIGHER END SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AND A STRONG TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND BETWEEN
2 AND 7 AM FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

LAZ007-292350-
MOREHOUSE LA-
521 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
521 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF BASTROP LOUISIANA...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTH OF GALION AT 520 PM CST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN MOREHOUSE PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3301 9177 3300 9150 3260 9176 3268 9195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 206DEG 48KT 3272 9181

BYB