Severe Thunderstorm Warning 394, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON COULD LINGER INTO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD...BUT MOST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 70.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A BIT MORE SCARCE ON THURSDAY AS THE
TROUGH DEPARTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS RAIN CHANCES LESSEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES OR SO AS HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL DOWN AROUND 70.

LOOKING TO FRIDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE LESS TO THE NORTH THANKS TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND 70. /27/19/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...NOT TO MANY BIG
SURPRISES THIS GO ROUND IN THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
MODELS GENERALLY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM
RUN-TO-RUN.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXPECT A RATHER STOUT UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTER TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DURING THIS TIME THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASING SUBSIDENT
IMPACT ON NORTHERN ZONES (ESPECIALLY UP IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA).
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES
UP IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...TRANSITIONING TO DECENT CHANCES OF
PRECIP IN THE MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF I-20.
ACTUALLY SOME SUGGESTION OF LINGERING JET LEVEL TROUGH IN SOUTHERN
ZONES...COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE (> 2 IN PW VALUES) AND H850
CONVERGENCE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS
THROUGH THIS PRESCRIBED PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME ANY FLOODING
PROBLEMS WILL BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND THUS NOT REALLY WORTH
MENTION IN THE HWO. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE
LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO LEVEL LESS THAN MEXMOS
EXPECTATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR...WHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH TEMPS WELL UP IN THE 90S COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE LOW 100S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
STATIONARY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS THE CENTER WILL DROP A LITTLE SOUTH
DOWN THE AXIS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PROMOTE
MORE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND DIVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE AND THUS
LESS RAIN CHANCES IN ALL AREAS. MAIN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS
THEN WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FORTUNATELY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW VECTORS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR
EAST...WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY DOES NOT PROMOTE A GREAT DEAL OF HEAT.
HOWEVER...LOCATIONS UP IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA COULD STILL HOLD ONTO
HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S.

IF THIS STAGNANT RIDGE DOES NOT BREAK LATER NEXT WEEK WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AND A
POSSIBLE LATE-SEASON HEAT WAVE. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT THIS EVOLUTION WILL COME TO
PASS...SO STAY TUNED. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THIS EVENING
XCPT INVOF SHRA/TSRA. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WL PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING LEAVING GENERALLY QUIET
CONDS OVRNGT. IFR CIG WL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING
FOR MOST SITES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. VFR
CONDS TO RETURN AFTER 15-16Z. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  93  70  94 /  30  30  16  26
MERIDIAN      70  92  69  93 /  39  38  24  29
VICKSBURG     69  94  69  94 /  24  25  16  22
HATTIESBURG   71  93  72  94 /  29  41  19  35
NATCHEZ       70  92  71  93 /  27  38  16  30
GREENVILLE    70  94  70  95 /  20  17  13  14
GREENWOOD     70  94  70  95 /  29  21  18  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
226 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
221930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
226 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK

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MSZ043-211845-
MADISON MS-
114 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
114 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER SHARON AT 115 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3259 8979 3258 8983 3259 8984 3256 8987
      3254 8999 3273 9007 3275 9004 3280 9002
      3284 8983 3259 8978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 166DEG 7KT 3265 8991

BK

MSZ044-211910-
LEAKE MS-
138 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
138 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RENFROE AT 138 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT
5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL LEAKE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3273 8939 3275 8960 3293 8960 3293 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 186DEG 6KT 3283 8948

BK

LAZ015-212135-
RICHLAND LA-
405 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF HOLLY RIDGE AT 404 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3257 9174 3261 9172 3261 9167 3266 9164
      3267 9161 3266 9160 3258 9159 3258 9152
      3245 9151 3242 9172 3256 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 171DEG 3KT 3253 9164

MRM

MSZ060-212225-
ADAMS MS-
455 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF CRANFIELD AT 455 PM CDT...MOVING WEST AT 10
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3155 9143 3157 9140 3159 9141 3168 9135
      3166 9126 3165 9127 3163 9123 3163 9116
      3158 9115 3146 9118 3149 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 100DEG 7KT 3156 9127

MRM

MSZ025>027-212300-
LEFLORE MS-GRENADA MS-CARROLL MS-
531 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
531 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER AVALON AT 531 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...SOUTHWESTERN GRENADA AND EAST
CENTRAL LEFLORE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3362 9026 3373 9011 3368 9003 3355 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 136DEG 6KT 3364 9012

MRM