Severe Thunderstorm Warning 365, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TWO BANDS OF
RAIN/STORMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST...AND LESS
INTENSE...BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHING A CORRIDOR OF THE RICHEST MOISTURE THOUGH LAPSE
RATES ARE POOR AND SHEAR ISNT GREAT AS WELL. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN SUB-STRONG/SEVERE BUT BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE STATE. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED MORE OR LESS RIGHT ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS COMING IN A CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AND
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THIS WAS THE
AREA OF GREATEST POTENTIAL PER THIS MORNINGS LOCAL MICROBURST
CHECKLIST/SOUNDING. LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL TOTALS WERE BETTER ACROSS THE WEST
GIVEN COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES...AS WAS CAPE THANKS TO SUFFICIENT
HEATING...AND DCAPE WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE PLENTY WEST OF THE REGION AND
THUS SHOULD BE A NONFACTOR. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. MODEL PW VALUES APPROACH 1.8 TO
2 INCHES. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER THAN
THEY ARE TODAY/-7 TO -8C VERSUS THE -9 TO -11C TODAY/...VERTICAL
TOTALS SHOULD BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TOO BUT MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG STORM BUT NOT EXPECTING THE TYPE
OF ACTIVITY WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S/PERHAPS AROUND 90.

TUESDAY...THE 600DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION.
A SOUPY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS PW VALUES WILL BE 1.7-2
INCHES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING. RIGHT NOW...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN ON THE WARMER
SIDE WHICH WOULD LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND WEAKER SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...THIS OF COURSE WILL
BE ANALYZED DAY BY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE LOWER
70S. /28/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.  MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL BUILD EAST TO WEST INCREASING ITS
PRESENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION BUT IT GRADUALLY LOOKS TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY.  MEANWHILE...LOWS REMAIN MILD AS THEY ONLY
SLIP INTO THE LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
ISOLD/SCT SHRA AND TSRA HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING HRS. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WL BE PSBL INVOF THIS
CONVECTION. SHRA MAY VERY WELL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT TIME HRS FOR
AREAS ALONG/W OF I-55 GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. MVFR/IFR CIG
AND VSBY WL BE PSBL ACROSS ALL AREAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  90  71  90 /  24  27  30  35
MERIDIAN      69  88  70  90 /  23  32  32  17
VICKSBURG     68  90  71  90 /  29  25  29  43
HATTIESBURG   70  89  72  90 /  30  43  29  42
NATCHEZ       69  89  71  88 /  32  40  27  54
GREENVILLE    71  90  71  92 /  25  25  25  38
GREENWOOD     70  89  71  92 /  23  25  29  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/19/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053>056-059>066-072>074-152000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AS WELL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS IS WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH STRONG STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MSZ026>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-057-058-152000-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS IS WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH STRONG STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK

LAZ024-026-142150-
CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
418 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
418 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JONESVILLE AT 418 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN CATAHOULA AND NORTHWESTERN CONCORDIA PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3177 9201 3183 9201 3187 9192 3164 9179
      3160 9183 3157 9183 3153 9179 3146 9192
      3157 9202 3177 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 149DEG 11KT 3159 9189

MRM

LAZ015-142155-
RICHLAND LA-
426 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
426 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAYVILLE AT 427 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL RICHLAND PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3256 9176 3248 9155 3240 9160 3240 9164
      3239 9165 3239 9168 3236 9170 3240 9184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 203DEG 10KT 3246 9170

MRM

MSZ064-142155-
JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
427 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY AT 427 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3176 8996 3177 8980 3162 8979 3163 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 166DEG 8KT 3167 8986

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW PATTISON          31.86N 90.94W
07/14/2013                   CLAIBORNE          MS   PUBLIC

            TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG PINE GROVE ROAD

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
437 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION CHURCH            31.68N 90.79W
07/14/2013                   JEFFERSON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ALONG HWY 28

&&

CME

LAZ009-MSZ040-142210-
ISSAQUENA MS-EAST CARROLL LA-
442 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
442 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE PROVIDENCE AT 442 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL ISSAQUENA COUNTY...AND CENTRAL EAST CARROLL
PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3292 9126 3287 9110 3274 9107 3272 9121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 154DEG 10KT 3280 9117

CME