Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY AS THEY PUSH THROUGH THE
CWA. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE 60-70 MPH WIND
GUSTS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT LESS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXPECTED ROUND OF
STORMS...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SFC DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S WHICH WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES LOWER. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT FRI WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
90S SOUTH. /27/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE BY LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK COOL FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW
THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.  WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER/CLOSER TO
BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS/ IN THE 90-93 DEGREE
RANGE. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA AND
SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MVFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIKELY AT SITES THAT OBSERVE
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  90  64  92 /  56   2   8   6
MERIDIAN      67  90  60  93 /  61   2   7   8
VICKSBURG     69  90  62  92 /  43   3   8   6
HATTIESBURG   72  93  66  95 /  41  11   4   3
NATCHEZ       73  90  64  91 /  30  11   4   3
GREENVILLE    68  88  64  92 /  28   1   6   6
GREENWOOD     66  87  61  92 /  35   1   6   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

27/28/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
701 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

MSZ025>033-036>039-044>046-050>052-150015-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
701 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COOL
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-035-040>043-
047>049-053>066-072>074-150015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
701 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK

MSZ030-031-140005-
LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-
620 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 17 MILES NORTH OF WEST POINT AT 619
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. THE STORM LOOKS TO ENTER PORTIONS
OF CLAY COUNTY AROUND 645 PM.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND NORTHERN LOWNDES COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3350 8832 3348 8864 3369 8867 3369 8850
      3367 8849 3368 8842 3368 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 342DEG 22KT 3383 8860

CME

MSZ031-140045-
LOWNDES MS-
702 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
702 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWNDES COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 45 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS
LOCATED OVER CALEDONIA AT 701 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3349 8827 3345 8829 3367 8844 3370 8840
      3369 8837 3375 8832 3375 8825 3374 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 326DEG 22KT 3369 8832

BYB

MSZ030-031-140115-
LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-
733 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
733 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST POINT
AT 732 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

ANOTHER SIMILARLY STRONG STORM WAS 5 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS AT 732
PM CDT...ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND LOWNDES COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3332 8830 3329 8836 3329 8847 3368 8869
      3369 8850 3367 8849 3367 8843 3367 8841
      3348 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 331DEG 24KT 3368 8856

BYB

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