Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1121 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NECESSARY. PER 12Z JAN RAOB...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED AS
WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL YIELD SFC-BASED CAPE APPROACHING 4000
J/KG WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE ~1200 J/KG...ALL MAKING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS IN THE WEAKLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
PRIMARY QUESTIONS SURROUND FOCUSING/LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THREE SUCH AREAS ARE ON THE FRINGES OF THE ARKLAMISS...A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NRN MS/NRN
AL...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER AR AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE OVER SE LA/SRN MS ASSOC WITH
EASTERLY FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM
THESE SOURCES MAY CAUSE RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE STRONG SVR WEATHER RISK AREA SOME.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WHERE
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LASTING A COUPLE HOURS IN THOSE AREAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE NW
WHERE A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. /GRG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TRIED TO USE A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT TODAY. TWEAKED
THE MAV GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY...BUT STAYED REALLY CLOSE FOR POPS.
OTHERWISE MAV WAS GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
EAST AT THE START OF THE SHIFT...HOWEVER THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH MO/TN EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THOSE STORMS WERE ALSO MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. NOT
ANTICIPATING RE-DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTNING/INTENSITY WAS INCREASING AS THE STORMS DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST. DID NOT ADD A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO THE ZONES...BUT KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH FOR THE NOWCAST THROUGH 12Z.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE NEXT COMPLEX WAS MOVING THROUGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON....WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
PARAMETERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THE SAME WORDING IN THE HWO...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE
OVER THE GULF WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
TO SLOW THE BOUNDARY/STORM COMPLEX DOWN...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
NOT SHOWING ANY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR NEW QPF AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER WEEKEND EXPECTED AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S LOOK
PROBABLE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKING PRECIP CHANCES
A TOUCH TRICKY.

OVERALL PATTERN WILL MIGRATE FROM A MODEST S/WV TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING AXIS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO A
SUBTLE S/WV NW FLOW TROUGHING REGIME OVER THE WEEKEND TO A WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AS A MODESTLY PROGGED 593DM RIDGE SETS
UP OVER S-CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFTS OVER THE REGION
BY MID WEEK. 05/00Z GFS VS. 04/12Z EC SHOWED STRONGER MOMENTUM TO
WEEKEND BOUNDARY GETTING FARTHER SOUTH NEAR I-10 CORRIDOR AND
SLIDING A H7 SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE UNDER THE DEVELOPING H5 S-CNTRL
PLAINS RIDGE INDICATING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EC HAS BEEN SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
RIDGE, LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR POTENTIAL NW FLOW MCS/S WITH
SEVERAL APPARENT INDICATIONS IN QPF MASS FIELDS. YET, HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS 00Z GFS GIVEN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN H7 AND H5 ENSEMBLE
MEAN/PERTURBATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS. LATEST 00Z EC COMING IN HAS
SHIFTED H5 RIDGE AXIS FARTHER EAST, HELPING INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN
HOTTER/DRIER FORECAST. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL NW SURPRISES IF RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BUILD IN.

SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY
AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG BUT THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE EXITING EAST BEFORE
BEST AFTN DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PUSHED
FARTHER SOUTH SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT AFTN FOR FAR
SOUTH AREAS AS SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY FLARES UP UNDER PREVAILING NW
FLOW. TEMPS SAT MRNG WILL MORE COMFORTABLE AS OF LATE WITH READINGS
DOWN IN THE LOW 60S. MOISTURE WILL REBOUND QUICKLY SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A HINT OF
AN EMBEDDED SMALLER WAVE IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A TOUCH FOR W/NW AREAS IN PROXIMITY TO WAVE WHILE
LEAVING INTACT POPS FOR SOUTH AREAS AS SEA-BREEZE ACTION COMMENCES
AGAIN.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START TO FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY IN THE MID
90S AS THE H7-5 RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE ARKLAMISS.
TEMPERED TEMPS 1-2F DOWN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF RIDGE NOT BUILDING IN
AS FAST AS GFS ADVERTISED VS. EC AND INCREASED POPS BY 5% TO CARRY
SOME POTENTIAL FOR NW CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UNCAPPED,
DEEPER MOISTURE GRADIENT, AND SUBTLE S/WV TROUGHING TRAIN SETS UP
ALONG A NW/SE AXIS NEARBY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  70  88  69 /  33  33  56  63
MERIDIAN      89  69  89  68 /  41  41  50  64
VICKSBURG     92  71  87  66 /  27  31  58  62
HATTIESBURG   91  70  91  70 /  51  51  36  30
NATCHEZ       90  71  88  68 /  35  35  48  36
GREENVILLE    91  73  86  68 /  34  56  64  58
GREENWOOD     91  71  88  68 /  35  55  67  64

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>037-040>042-061815-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL
BE 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ038-039-043>066-072>074-061815-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60
MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL
BE 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

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MSZ031-052035-
LOWNDES MS-
249 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO
50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER COLUMBUS AFB AT 249 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LOWNDES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3351 8827 3350 8856 3353 8856 3355 8853
      3352 8848 3358 8849 3360 8847 3362 8851
      3366 8851 3368 8841 3370 8840 3369 8837
      3373 8834 3374 8827 3361 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 262DEG 8KT 3360 8846

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             LELAND                  33.40N 90.90W
06/05/2013  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         MS   PUBLIC

&&

27

MSZ030-032-033-052045-
OKTIBBEHA MS-CLAY MS-CHOCTAW MS-
303 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
303 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM GRIFFITH TO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHESTER AT 302 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CHOCTAW...CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3361 8851 3329 8900 3329 8911 3322 8911
      3319 8915 3320 8921 3318 8922 3322 8932
      3328 8932 3329 8945 3334 8943 3356 8907
      3356 8902 3360 8901 3376 8877 3373 8871
      3368 8871 3369 8861 3364 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 297DEG 9KT 3364 8883 3339 8899
          3331 8930

19

MSZ031-052055-
LOWNDES MS-
326 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
326 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER STEENS AT 327 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3368 8825 3362 8825 3349 8827 3346 8835
      3363 8844 3372 8825 3369 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 245DEG 13KT 3358 8830

BK