Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1014 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...THURSDAY IS OFF TO A MILD AND HUMID START. A BROKEN CU
FIELD COVERS MOST OF THE AREA...AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE 12Z KJAN RAOB INDICATED A MOIST
(PWAT AROUND 1.64) AND UNSTABLE (MLCAPES ALREADY AROUND 1700 J/KG)
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE PRIOR TO DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH WIND SHEAR
WAS FAIRLY WEAK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IT WILL HELP TO IGNITE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GRIDDED OUTPUT INDICATE SFC BASED CAPES
RISING TO NEAR 3000 J/KG BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 6.5-7 C/KM ACROSS THE DELTA. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL BE MARGINAL BUT MAY REACH 25-30 KTS OVER
THE DELTA. WITH AN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR BETTER THAN USUAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION
BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA WHERE LAPSE RATES AND BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT BETTER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION FOR TODAY.
THE ONLY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP FORECAST HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
COUPLE DEGREES. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS EXPECTED...IT MAY
BE DIFFICULT TO REACH THE UPPER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ARE CURRENTLY BEING SHIPPED OUT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH THE REGION AS OF 15Z WITH
BKN/OVC CLOUD CIGS BTW 800 TO 2000 FT. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
UPWARD WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO SHRA
ONGOING NOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KHBG TO KJAN TO KGLH LINE. EXPECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE TO TSRA THROUGH THE LATE MRNG AND
AFTN HOURS. SOME TSRA COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALIZED TURBULENT WINDS
ALOFT AND 30-50 MPH WIND GUSTS AT THE SFC. STORM TOPS TO FL450 WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALSO PSBL. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
IN ALL TAFS BUT GREATEST RISK WILL BE FOR SRN AND WESTERN SITES.
LOCALIZED IFR CONDS INVOF STORMS IS LIKELY. WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS
WILL BE SE AT 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. TSRA/SHRA WILL
DIMINISH BY 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS RETURNING OVRNGT WITH STRATUS
BUILDING BACK IN. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013/
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE GFS INDICATES GREATER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING FOR FRIDAY
WHICH MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TYPICAL FOR
THE END OF MAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /EC/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL BE
ENHANCED A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. THIS LOOKS TO PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND CAPE VALUES GENERALLY PROGGED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 2500-3000 J/KG. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.  SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL AGAIN CREEP BACK INTO THE
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUBTLY INCREASES AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

DL/ALLEN/EC/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
456 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
311000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
453 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AND MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS TODAY...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS MAY
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
RISKS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...COULD BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC/19/

MSZ049-055-056-301805-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-RANKIN MS-
1232 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1232 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAGEE AT 1233 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT
35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN...EASTERN SIMPSON AND WESTERN SMITH
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3215 8992 3221 8957 3182 8949 3179 8987
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 173DEG 30KT 3192 8969

JA

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>