Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A RATHER WET
EASTER SUNDAY FOR THE ARKLAMISS. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STALLED
FRONT WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE BUT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. THESE DISTURBANCES INCLUDING THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
80KT JET STREAK WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 00Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWED A
PW OF 1.09IN AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 50S. BY
AFTERNOON PWS ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 1.3IN WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
NORTH TO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. MODELS STILL SHOW DEEP LATER
SHEAR BELOW 25KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA TODAY BUT GREATER SHEAR...MLCAPES NEAR 1000J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C ARE EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING EAST BY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH QUARTER SIZED
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. STRONG STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
OUR NORTHERN HALF. THE MORNING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL DELAY
WARMING IN OUR NORTH AND SITES MAY NOT REACH THE LOWER 70S BUT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND A LATER START TO CONVECTION WILL ALLOW
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. THERE WON'T
BE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTH TONIGHT DESPITE ANOTHER SUBTLE DISTURBANCE BUT THE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
WHICH IS DRIER FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. YET ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AND SEND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT SLATED
TO ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTH AND CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAY MONDAY AS MOST SITES TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WL
CARRY LOW POP CENTRAL AND SOUTH DUE TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE AREA. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE BECOMING NORMAL AND ABOVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE EXPRESS AFFECTING THE REGION...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUING OUR CHANCES OF
RAIN AS AS SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED AND SOME
SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR PERIODS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS DURING MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY THE
SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE OPENED UP AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
WITH A SURFACE WAVE REFLECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS...FORMER
NOGAPS(NAVGEM) AND ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND EURO WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER. OPTED TO GO WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THIS WEEKEND. LOWS DURING
THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

FOR POPS AND TEMPS WENT WITH A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES...HPC
GUIDANCE...MEX AND GMOS GUIDANCE./17/

&&

.AVIATION...RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG HWY 82 WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE NW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HWY 82
CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT
09Z ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP CNTRL AND SOUTH BY 11Z. THE FOG WILL CLEAR MOST LOCATIONS
BY 13Z BUT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  54  77  52 /  83  64  12   5
MERIDIAN      74  55  77  46 /  82  75   9   5
VICKSBURG     73  54  77  53 /  83  52  13   5
HATTIESBURG   78  60  79  54 /  71  66  21   8
NATCHEZ       75  55  77  54 /  74  58  20   5
GREENVILLE    71  53  76  48 /  90  28   5   5
GREENWOOD     71  50  77  47 /  90  33   5   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/17/22

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MSZ019-025>027-310945-
SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-GRENADA MS-CARROLL MS-
415 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL EXTENDED FROM LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLAINE TO GREENWOOD AT
413 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GRENADA...
CENTRAL LEFLORE AND CENTRAL SUNFLOWER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3369 9000 3334 9011 3352 9069 3370 9063
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 281DEG 44KT 3358 9053

MRM