Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
630 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN RECORDED ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS EVENING ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WAS TRAILING WELL BEHIND
THE ACTIVITY IN OUR SE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS EVENING AND END THE CONVECTIVE THREAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE CURRENT
TRENDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE SOUTH SURGED INTO THE LOWER 80S.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN IN THE
60S BY THE RAIN. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREA
RADARS WERE PICKING UP SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 PUSHING EAST. A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS
SITUATED FROM KACT TO KCKM TO KCRX. LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS EXTENDED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME GOOD FORCING AND ASCENT WAS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOCAL AND NATIONAL
WRF SHOWS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE RAINS.
DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND FRONT. THIS WILL ADVECT A
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH
WILL SWING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS WE GO INTO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER THE
DRYER SOLUTION. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. BUT BELIEVE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 40S AS WELL AS LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV AND GMOS GUIDANCE ON POPS AND TEMPS./17/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...EURO AND GFS SIMILAR IN FIRST
HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS BOTH HAVE BROAD NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. DIFFERENCES MOUNT MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND BETWEEN THE EURO
AND GFS IN THE EVOLUTION OF A PAIR OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. EURO SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AS IT
MOVES THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPLETELY IN AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING SATURDAY DRY. PREFER THE STRONGER
GFS IN THIS SITUATION AS DECREASED AMPLITUDE OF THE FIRST WAVE
SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTIRELY ACROSS THE
AREA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BOUNDARY SHOULD INSTEAD
HANGUP OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...
ESPECIALLY AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT MORE POTENT
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. 17/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR OCNL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS RANGING FROM 2000-4000 FEET.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. LCL IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN TSTMS. THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 70 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. /03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       46  69  44  68 /  22   4   3  11
MERIDIAN      47  69  38  69 /  29   5   3  11
VICKSBURG     46  70  44  69 /  20   4   4  12
HATTIESBURG   55  72  45  72 /  65   6   7  13
NATCHEZ       49  70  44  68 /  62   4   4  13
GREENVILLE    42  65  41  66 /  17   4   3  10
GREENWOOD     41  65  39  67 /  19   4   3   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/17/26/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
611 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

LAZ024-026-MSZ048-049-054>066-072>074-192315-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-HINDS-RANKIN-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
611 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND VERY LARGE GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. ONE
OR TWO TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR THIS EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>047-050>053-
192315-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
611 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             4 NNE TUCKERS CROSSING  31.68N 89.06W
03/18/2013  E1.75 INCH       JONES              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

AEG

MSZ044-045-050-051-190035-
SCOTT MS-NEWTON MS-NESHOBA MS-LEAKE MS-
707 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
707 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF HARPERVILLE AT 707 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LEAKE...SOUTHWESTERN NESHOBA...NORTHWESTERN
NEWTON AND NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3265 8904 3243 8904 3250 8954 3263 8953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 271DEG 30KT 3255 8946

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
709 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             6 ENE NATCHEZ           31.58N 91.29W
03/18/2013  M0.75 INCH       ADAMS              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
725 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             7 NE NATCHEZ            31.62N 91.30W
03/18/2013  E1.75 INCH       ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PING PONG TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN WASHINGTON AREA

&&

AEG

MSZ048-049-190110-
RANKIN MS-HINDS MS-
726 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
726 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF RAYMOND AT 726 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL HINDS AND WEST CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3229 9007 3214 9010 3222 9058 3234 9055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 274DEG 31KT 3225 9050

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
738 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             ROXIE                   31.51N 91.07W
03/18/2013  M1.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

AEG