Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 PUSHING EAST. A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS
SITUATED FROM KACT TO KCKM TO KCRX. LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS EXTENDED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME GOOD FORCING AND ASCENT WAS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOCAL AND NATIONAL WRF
SHOWS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN AREA WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE RAINS.
DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND FRONT. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS WE GO INTO
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME OF
THE MODELS TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PREFER THE DRYER SOLUTION. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BUT BELIEVE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 40S AS WELL AS LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV AND GMOS GUIDANCE ON POPS AND TEMPS./17/

.LONGTERM...THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...EURO AND GFS SIMILAR IN FIRST
HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS BOTH HAVE BROAD NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
REGION.

DIFFERENCES MOUNT MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A PAIR OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. EURO SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AS IT MOVES
THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPLETELY IN AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING SATURDAY DRY. PREFER THE STRONGER GFS IN
THIS SITUATION AS DECREASED AMPLITUDE OF THE FIRST WAVE SHOULD HAVE
A HARD TIME PUSHING SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTIRELY ACROSS THE AREA AND
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BOUNDARY SHOULD INSTEAD HANGUP
OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY
AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT MORE POTENT WAVE TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY. 17/26/

&&
.AVIATION...VFR OCNL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECKS RANGING FROM 2000-4000 FEET.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. LCL IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN TSTMS. THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 70 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. /03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       46  69  44  68 /  29   4   3  15
MERIDIAN      47  69  38  69 /  54   5   3  11
VICKSBURG     46  70  44  69 /  18   4   4  19
HATTIESBURG   55  72  45  72 /  34   6   7  15
NATCHEZ       49  70  44  68 /  15   4   4  21
GREENVILLE    42  65  41  66 /  17   4   3  14
GREENWOOD     41  65  39  67 /  31   4   3  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

LAZ016-MSZ030>033-036>040-042>052-054>058-063>066-192045-
MADISON LA-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
339 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND VERY LARGE GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. ONE
OR TWO TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LAZ023>026-MSZ053-059>062-072>074-192045-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
339 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING TO INITIATE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED IN
THIS AREA...BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...COULD POSSIBLY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>029-034-035-041-192045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-SHARKEY-
339 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03

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