Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
DYNAMICS INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS IN AREAS OF TRAINING
AND PERSISTENT SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW WILL PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS.
GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE DELTA. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES AWAY...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL
BE COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. /27/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS LOOKING
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN IT HAS BEEN LATELY. IN THAT RESPECT IT WILL BE
MUCH QUIETER AND GENERALLY DRY. ALSO NOTABLE IS THE FACT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY AND GOING INTO
THE BEGINNING OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS STRETCH WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ANYBODY
BETTING WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST OF THE FREEZES IS LIKELY TO LOSE.

THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) IS STALLING IN PHASE 5 FOR A BIT
AND THIS INTERESTINGLY PRESENTS A DECENT ARGUMENT FOR CONTINUED
RATHER WET CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG
RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS A STOUT AND NON-TRANSIENT NEGATIVE
MODE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IS DEVELOPING...WHICH WILL
OVERRIDE MJO PHASE SUGGESTIONS. FOR THOSE NOT FAMILIAR WITH THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION INDEX...IT ATTEMPTS TO QUANTIFY BLOCKING
AND AMPLIFICATION IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR AND ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
WITH A NEGATIVE MODE HAVING STRONG CORRELATIONS TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
(INCLUDING THE LOWER MS VALLEY).

SO THAT ABOUT SUMS IT UP FOR THE LONG RANGE. WE ARE IN DEFINITE NEED
OF A BREAK FROM RAIN AND LOOK LIKE WE ARE GOING TO GET IT.
PERSONALLY...I WOULD FIND IT MORE PLEASANT TO SEE TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER THAN WE ARE ANTICIPATING...BUT YOU GOT TO TAKE THE GOOD WITH
THE BAD. AS FOR SPECIFICS...GFS-DERIVED MEX TEMPERATURES DID NOT
LOOK TOO BAD ALTHOUGH I DID PICK SEVERAL PERIODS LATE THIS WORK WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND TO EXERCISE SOME JUDICIOUS CUTS. REASONING FOR THE
LATTER WAS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE QUITE ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY
PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE DAMPENED BY MEX
CALCULATIONS DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM CLIMATOLOGY. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...A TREND TOWARD MVFR/IFR CIG WILL ENSUE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENING AS A SQUALL LINE CROSSES THE REGION BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER.
AFTER THIS LINE PASSES...A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN VFR CONDS MAY
DEVELOP BEFORE MVFR/IFR CIG RETURN FROM W TO E AFTER 09Z. CLOUD COVER
WL GRADUALLY CLR FROM SW TO NE LATE TOMORROW. SELY/SLY SFC WINDS
TODAY WL BE GUSTY/ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN/BEFORE REMAINING GUSTY AND
BECMG MORE SWLY THIS EVENING AND OVRNGT. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       42  53  35  60 /  82  13   5   2
MERIDIAN      43  55  34  63 / 100  14   6   2
VICKSBURG     42  54  34  61 /  48  10   4   2
HATTIESBURG   46  60  38  64 /  94  11   8   0
NATCHEZ       40  55  36  62 /  37   9   4   1
GREENVILLE    41  53  35  56 /  63  18   5   6
GREENWOOD     43  53  34  56 /  90  26   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ055>058-
     062>066-072>074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

27/BB/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
334 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ053-059>061-262145-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
334 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS.
THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL END QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

MSZ018-019-025>052-054-262145-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-
334 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES...
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. THE RISK
FOR STORMS WILL QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MSZ055>058-062>066-072>074-262145-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
334 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES...
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS...AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL QUICKLY
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

MSZ062-063-252130-
LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-
302 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER RUTH AT 302 PM CST...MOVING
NORTH AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN LAWRENCE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3170 9032 3170 9026 3172 9024 3173 9020
      3175 9014 3176 9004 3134 9019 3134 9041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 194DEG 41KT 3140 9029

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             CHURCH HILL             31.72N 91.24W
02/25/2013  E0.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZE HAILL REPORTED IN CHURCH HILL.

&&

EDMONSTN

MSZ056-065-252150-
SMITH MS-COVINGTON MS-
319 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER COLLINS AT 319 PM CST...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN COVINGTON AND CENTRAL SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3156 8965 3157 8967 3205 8963 3202 8936
      3154 8946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 187DEG 34KT 3164 8955

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
326 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             COLLINS                 31.64N 89.56W
02/25/2013  E0.75 INCH       COVINGTON          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW MOUND              32.35N 91.03W
02/25/2013  M56.00 MPH       MADISON            LA   ASOS

            49 KT GUST MEASURED AT THE VICKSBURG/TAULLUAH REGIONAL
            AIRPORT ASOS

&&

DL

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