River Flood Warning 79, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
THURSDAY...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE MODELS
CONTINUING INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN THE DELTA AND CONTINUING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG CAPPING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
BY THIS AFTERNOON THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE ARKLAMISS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH OVER THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA AREAS FOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SO
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CHARGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EAST OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 1.7-1.9 INCHES
AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE LINE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. WILL ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THESE
AREAS.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES INSTABILITY LOOKS PLENTIFUL WITH -7.0 TO -7.5
C/KM LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ALONG WITH ML CAPES OF 800-1200 J/KG
THIS EVENING IN THE WEST...WANING A BIT THE FURTHER EAST THE
SQUALL LINE GETS RANGING FROM 200-600 J/KG BY THURSDAY MORNING. H850
WINDS WILL BE 45-50KTS AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH
0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 250-350 M2/S2 AND 300-450 M2/S2 OF 0-3 SRH IN
THE DELTA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WEST OF I-55...BUT WEAKENS AS THE LINE PROGRESS EAST
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE A QLCS EVENT WITH
PREFRONTAL CELLS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING DUE TO STRONG
CAPPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH CANT BE RULED OUT IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE QLCS
BECOMES DOMINATE. EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO TRANSITION MORE TO A
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EARLY THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR BEGINS TO
WEAKEN IN THE EAST. THE LINE WILL FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL MODES OF
SEVERE POSSIBLE IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS...BUT EXPECT THE PRIMARY
RISKS TO BE STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...BUT TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA THIS EVENING.

THE SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT...FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY...BUT STUCK PRETTY CLOSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. AS FAR AS POPS GOES...RAISED ABOVE IN THE WEST TONIGHT
AND IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. /15/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN
THE MID 70S. THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS CAME IN
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT'S RUN AND LOOK REASONABLE. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS OUR CWA. NEAR FULL
INSOLATION...WITH ONLY A LIGHT NORTH WIND WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING. OUR FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH
THIS FEATURE AS THE GFS HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN OPEN TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER IN SWINGING THE TROUGH EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE CLOSED LOW BACK OVER OLD MEXICO. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE RAIN DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT THE GFS CATCHES UP SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE ECMWF HAS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE
EAST OF OUR CWA WHILE THE GFS PLACES THE AXIS OVER THE ARKLATEX.
BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURGE OF UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70 DEW POINTS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO HELP
FUEL THE CONVECTION. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
FURTHER AMPLIFIED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE GFS HAS A CLOSED LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NEAR ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF HAS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES. EITHER SCENARIO WILL STILL LEAD TO DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED IN THE EAST WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS WERE NOTED CENTRAL AND WEST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
BE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-8KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND BECOME
WINDY THIS MORNING. SPEEDS OF 10-20KTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30KTS...WITH
35KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA CAN BE EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING
AROUND 00-03Z. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL AND
LIFR CONDITIONS. /28/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  64  72  47 /  24  96  87  14
MERIDIAN      83  66  77  46 /  12  50 100  35
VICKSBURG     84  61  70  45 /  39 100  64  13
HATTIESBURG   83  67  78  50 /  13  41 100  26
NATCHEZ       82  60  70  46 /  29  98  62   9
GREENVILLE    83  58  69  44 /  71 100  47  13
GREENWOOD     83  63  70  43 /  37 100  59  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-040>042-047-053-059-060.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

15/22/22

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