River Flood Warning 102, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN MS/SE LA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES/TOTALS OVER
SCNTRL/SERN ZONES TODAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING IN THE SE
AS THE LATEST WAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE BETTER DYNAMICS OUT OF
THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TEMPORARILY LOWER FOR MANY AREAS THIS
EVENING AS FORCING WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
NEXT RAIN MAKER SHIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SYNOPTIC FORCING/OMEGA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
IN THE WEST AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE AREA WILL BE
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE 850 MB TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SWATH OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH AND IS FORECAST
TO HANG ON OVER ERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN AT 925MB/SURFACE
LAYERS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DRYING ALOFT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT AS INDICATED BY
WARMER 850 MB DEWPOINTS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE MORNING IN THE
WEST. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST...THROUGH 700 MB...TO WARRANT
AN INCREASE IN FRIDAY POPS OVER MOS NUMBERS ACROSS WRN ZONES FOR
EARLY FRIDAY.

SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS INDICATED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH MAV MOS FORECASTING RECORD LOWS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HESITANTLY FOLLOW MOS NUMBERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
SINCE GOOD CONSENSUS IS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS...NAM AND EURO. MOS
HAS WAVERED BACK AND FORTH FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL ON HOW
COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SO CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED REGARDING
TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. /03/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL POSITION AND TRACK OF A
LARGE 540DAM CLOSED LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS COME A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THIS RUN...MAKING THE GFS AND ECMWF REMARKABLY CLOSE WITH THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
MORNING THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FALLING JUST EAST OF OUR
CWA WITH A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW WILL KNOCK PWS DOWN TO BELOW A HALF AN INCH OVER THE
CWA. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AT SEVERAL SITES ARE
SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW COMBINED
WITH CLOUD COVER AND LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AGAIN. MODELS MOVE THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW VERY SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY WITH THE GFS ONLY PLACING THE
LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE SUNDAY MORNING AND OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE AND SURGE OF
MOISTURE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO MORE OF OUR
AREA BUT...GREATEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST MONDAY AND END UP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WELL. BY WEDNESDAY MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT WITH YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW. THE GFS
IS FARTHER WEST OVER NEVADA WITH THE LOW VERSUS THE ECMWF WITH THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR CWA THE ECMWF
HAS AN INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER OUR CWA WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS
TROUGHING OVER OUR REGION. WL LEAN TO A SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
CARRY MENTION OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE
WARMER AND DRIER FOR US. BY THURSDAY THE GFS HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN OPEN TROUGH MOVING
INTO OUR CWA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. AGAIN MAINTAINING A SLOWER
PROGRESSION IN LINE WITH THE GFS HAVE GONE WITH WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z
WITH LCL MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
RAINFALL WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND S OF I-20 SOUTH...THIS
AREA ALSO SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING
BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE REGION. /03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  61  61  37 /  72  51  70  18
MERIDIAN      73  61  68  39 /  70  44  74  37
VICKSBURG     72  57  58  39 /  67  58  78  14
HATTIESBURG   74  63  68  40 /  90  59  62  21
NATCHEZ       74  55  57  38 /  78  67  66  10
GREENVILLE    72  54  58  37 /  68  64  82  24
GREENWOOD     73  59  60  37 /  67  53  81  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LAZ016-023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

03/22/03

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