River Flood Advisory 8, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
356 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS ONGOING
THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY TAME THUS FAR. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
55 CORRIDOR WHERE LIFT FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS COMBINED WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE(PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 TO NEAR 2 INCHES PER
LATEST MESOANALYSIS) AND DAYTIME HEATING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING EAST.
AS THIS FEATURE ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...THIS SHOULD HELP
GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA REMAINS UNTAPPED FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION....THERE STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION. BASED ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM AND SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 25-30KTS
WITH SUFFICIENT SBCAPE SHOULD GENERATE SOME VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60MPH AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS EAST...STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. OTHER
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS-INDIANA BORDER WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTION OF MY CWA. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT ALL OF
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE.
HAVE LEFT IN MOS POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RESIDUAL/SLOWER PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION. BEYOND THIS...MUCH OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS UPPER
RIDGING TO THE WEST STARTS TO EASE INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND FOLLOWED CONSENSUS AND LEFT THE AFTERNOON DRY FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 90S MONDAY FOLLOWING
MORNING CONVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING
THE ARKLAMISS REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO COME IN DRIER FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FEEL THIS IS FAIRLY
GOOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION IN THE MODELS THERE COULD BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES
THROUGH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
SHOWN TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO CLIP MY FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA. HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...591DM HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SUGGEST
PRETTY HOT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW WET THE REGION HAS
BEEN...THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. MAV HIGHS WERE CUT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AT MANY SITES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES(BUT STILL
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S)... CONDITIONS WILL BE STEAMY AS DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE
REGION. AREAWIDE...WE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES FROM 97-99 DEGREES AND
EVEN EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES NORTH OF I-20. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. /28/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRETTY QUIET CONDITIONS LOOK
TO BE IN STORE TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE ARKLAMISS IS SITUATED ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TUE AND WED
AFTERNOON MAY AID IN SEA BREEZE ENCROACHMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS
QUIET WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH
AFTERNOON...SOME 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COOL FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION SOMETIME THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHICH SHOULD
BRING A DECENT (NOT TERRIFIC) CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME. CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH DUE TO THE WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SO WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AS IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

LOOKS LIKE THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT NOW
SITUATED SOMEWHERE ALONG OR SOUTH OF I-20 COULD VERY WELL PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH FRI AND SAT
AFTERNOONS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT QUITE CONVINCED AS IT SHOWS THE
UPPER RIDGE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION. ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE TIED
TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS.

OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS THE GFS MOS
TEMPS AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED. /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE TIMING
STORMS AND ANY IMPACTS TO TERMINAL SITES. MAIN PRECIP REGION IS
ACROSS THE E HALF. HOWEVER...LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE W/NW LOCATIONS. STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LATER ACTIVITY. LATER TONIGHT...FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH AN OCCASIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
IFR CEILINGS. SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  71  94 /  63  10   1   3
MERIDIAN      69  91  68  94 /  67  23   6   3
VICKSBURG     67  91  69  93 /  53   3   1   4
HATTIESBURG   71  91  71  95 /  50  35   7   3
NATCHEZ       70  90  70  93 /  40  10   5   3
GREENVILLE    69  92  71  94 /  48   3   1   4
GREENWOOD     68  90  70  94 /  60   5   1   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/BK/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
220 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>029-034>036-
040>042-047-101930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
220 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN 50 TO 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

LAZ024-026-MSZ030>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-101930-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
220 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

CME

LAZ015-023-100105-
RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-
705 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
705 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER BUCKNER AT 705 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3233 9202 3238 9201 3246 9170 3223 9164
      3219 9201 3221 9200 3226 9201 3227 9200
      3227 9203 3229 9204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 258DEG 12KT 3229 9196

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
739 PM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE LEXINGTON          33.10N 90.02W
06/09/2013                   HOLMES             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 17. REPORTED BY LEXINGTON PD

&&

MSZ026>028-100235-
MONTGOMERY MS-GRENADA MS-CARROLL MS-
838 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
838 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF GORE
SPRINGS TO 3 MILES WEST OF BLACK HAWK AT 837 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL...EASTERN GRENADA AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3346 8950 3346 8942 3328 8960 3329 8970
      3322 8975 3322 8977 3333 9016 3333 9017
      3387 8962 3387 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 264DEG 20KT 3385 8951 3331 9005

19

MSZ035-036-100250-
HUMPHREYS MS-HOLMES MS-
850 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
850 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED OVER TOLARVILLE AT 850 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN HOLMES AND EAST CENTRAL HUMPHREYS COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3322 8983 3307 8982 3300 8988 3295 8990
      3294 9016 3301 9033 3302 9034 3301 9036
      3301 9044 3300 9047 3312 9048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 264DEG 26KT 3305 9024

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSON                 32.32N 90.21W
06/09/2013                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON ROBINSON ROAD

&&

BURSE

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