Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Jackson, MS

Attala County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Warren County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
758 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

.UPDATE...

ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL MS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE CURRENT ICE STORM WARNING IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT PER PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME DRY
BULB READINGS NOW ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA...BUT WET BULB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32F AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DELTA REGION FOR THE
DURATION OF THE WARNING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...AND AS FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
PERTURBATION...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL SLIGHTLY AS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION DEVELPOPS IN THE MORNING.

FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 30S WHILE
THERE IS A LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY.

IN ADDITION...WE ARE MORE CONCERNED NOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AS GUIDANCE IS COMING IN HEAVIER WITH QPF FOR THE NEXT
ROUND. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LOOKING MORE
LIKLEY OVER AREAS IMPACTED WITH HEAVY RAIN EARLIER TODAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT
OR TUESDAY MORNING AND THE HWO WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
/EC/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013/

THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

ISENTROPIC LIFT GETS REVITALIZED LATE TONIGHT HROUGH AT LEAST MID-
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER H7-H3 S/WV TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE SW FLOW
ALOFT. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN RISK WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME FOR NW/N-CNTRL AREAS. IN FACT, AN AREA FROM MONROE,
LA TO GREENWOOD, MS AND WEST COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER 0.2-0.4" OF ICE
ACCUM THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN AS LOW-LVL WET- BULB PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN PRECIP TYPE. ALL TOLD...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
DELTA COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 0.75" ICE ACCUM IN LOCALIZED SPOTS
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE MELTING IN
BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN EPISODES. THIS REASONING IS WHY THE ICE STORM
WARNING WAS EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY WILL BE UPDATED THIS EVENING AND LIKELY EXTENDED IN BOTH
TIME AND SPACE DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT ACROSS TX AND ATTEMPT TO PHASE-IN WITH NRN
STEAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. STILL HERE ...IT IS NOT
OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES OF A FEW SPOTS GETTING MORE
FREEZING RAIN EARLY WEDS MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED. DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE S/WV TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE REGION...FINALLY ENDING THE RAINY PERIOD OF THE PAST WEEK
AND A HALF. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...

FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A BIG CONCERN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR GLH/GWO/TVR. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
WIDEPSREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR TVR/JAN/HKS/GTR/MEI/HBG/PIB
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AT GLH/GWO AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES CAUSING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO BREAK OUT...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       34  41  33  46 /  87  92  89  32
MERIDIAN      35  47  40  51 /  79  90  94  30
VICKSBURG     33  37  31  46 /  86  97  85  42
HATTIESBURG   38  49  41  52 /  80  98  59  26
NATCHEZ       35  39  32  44 /  87  99  82  41
GREENVILLE    29  34  26  44 /  38 100  48  26
GREENWOOD     30  37  29  46 /  69 100  86  24

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
     034>036-040>042.

LA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009.

AR...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

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