Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1032 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

.UPDATE...
STILL NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW THE AFTERNOON IS GOING TO PLAY OUT.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT ARE RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS AND ARE WARMING
UP NICELY WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE SEEING TEMPS DROP A BIT DUE TO ALL THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. NORTH MS AND THE DELTA COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A PROGRESSING FRONT THAT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THOUGH...THIS CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE
SUPPRESSED OR SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO THE MORNING ACTIVITY. DROPPED
HIGHS IN EAST MS DUE TO ALL THE RAINFALL AND THICK CLOUD COVER. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY AND POP GRIDS A BIT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A COMPLEX OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING IS IMPACTING AREAS E OF
I-55 THIS MORNING...WITH THIS COMPLEX EXPANDING TOWARD THE HBG
AREA...AND SHOULD REACH PIB/HBG OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE ENTIRE
COMPLEX WILL SHIFT S THRU THE MORNING IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20 THIS AFTN. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA IS XPCTD TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN
MS THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE N. THERE'S
SOME UNCERTAINTY W/JUST HOW WDSPRD THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME...BUT
IT SHOULD IMPACT AT LEAST AREAS ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR THRU THE
AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDS AND ISOLD SHRA WL
UNFOLD LATER THIS EVENING AND OVRNGT... W/SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CIG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST AREAS. /BK/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013/

SHORT TERM...A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE
MS/TN BORDER THIS MORNING. OTHER AREAS OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALSO
EXIST AS A RESULT OF EARLIER CONVECTION GENERALLY TO THE NORTH
AROUND THE REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL DROP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING SWD TONIGHT. WARM LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FROM 1.8 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THE AREA
TODAY. THE DIFFICULTY LIES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE REGIONS OF
BETTER COVERAGE SINCE THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA.  LOW LEVEL FORCING...FROM SURFACE
FEATURES AND A DESCENDING 850 MB TROUGH...WILL BE AVAILABLE TODAY
AND THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LIMITED
BUT VERTICAL TOTALS/LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WIND AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS BEING THE PRIMARY RISKS. ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRAY STORMS
REACHING SEVERE LEVELS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WHEN NEGATIVE
850 MB THETAE ADVECTION BEGINS ACROSS NRN MS AROUND SUNSET AND
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. INCREASING CIN VALUES AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS NRN INTO
CENTRAL ZONES BY 18Z FRI...SPREADING SWD DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE REFRESHING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT MOVES IN...MANY AREAS COOLING INTO THE
MID 60S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

MAV MOS HIGHS HAVE BEEN CUT A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY AND MAY COME IN
EVEN LOWER WHERE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
HAVE ALSO FOLLOWED LOWER GFS AVG ENSEMBLE POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN
ZONES...FOR TONIGHT. /03/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BEST CONSISTENCY AND BELIEVABILITY GARNERED FROM
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

KEY ELEMENT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY OR NORTHERN APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOLUTIONS FROM SEVERAL DAYS AGO WANTED TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE THIS LOW SOUTHWEST THROUGH OUR REGION DURING A LARGE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK. NOW THE OP GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME TO SOLUTIONS THAT
MIGRATE THE CENTER MORE QUICKLY WEST AND TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION. THESE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS LOOK STRANGE...NOT BEFITTING AT
ALL OF CLIMATOLOGY...AND SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH GFS/EURO ENSEMBLES
THAT ARE MAYBE QUICKER BUT SIMILAR TO DIRECTION OF THOSE PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS REFERRED TO ABOVE.

THE RESULT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE BEING MORE ACCURATE THAN THE OP
MEMBERS WOULD PROBABLY BE BETTER (AND PERHAPS MORE QUICKLY EVOLVING)
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST
MINOR SHOWER CHANCES MAYBE RETURNING TO FAR SE MS AS EARLY AS LATE
SATURDAY. ALL SCENARIOS SUGGEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
A SITUATION WHERE MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW VECTORS IN THE
LOWER TO MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STREAM INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
ZONES AND PROMOTE ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THE LATEST OP MODELS ARE
SO INTENSE WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR NORTH THAT IT IS POSSIBLE
THE SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE COULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES SOME OVER THIS
PERIOD IN MY NORTHERN ZONES...AS WELL AS INCREASE HEAT A LITTLE.

BUT...FOR NOW...MASSAGED MEX POP/TEMP NUMBERS TO SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
RAIN CHANCES AFTER SATURDAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR ALL AREAS. ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVELS MAY STAY COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR DECENT THUNDER COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THERE REALLY ARE NO SIGNS IN
THE MODEL FIELDS OF ANY MAJOR POTENCY. IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE IN AT
LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES WE COULD HAVE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ISSUES THAT
MAY WARRANT MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS TO COME. BUT...AS
OF RIGHT NOW...THE POTENTIAL SCALE OF THAT PROBLEM WEIGHTED WITH
UNCERTAINTY ARGUES TO KEEP THE LONG TERM SECTION OF THE HWO CLEAR.
/BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  71  92  68 /  65  14  11   4
MERIDIAN      84  71  93  67 /  74  16  13   5
VICKSBURG     90  69  93  68 /  57  15   7   6
HATTIESBURG   88  72  94  70 /  78  30  28   6
NATCHEZ       90  72  90  68 /  59  28  12   3
GREENVILLE    91  72  91  67 /  44   9   2   7
GREENWOOD     91  70  89  66 /  47  10   3   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
121030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
519 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND LOCAL FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS MAY OCCUR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03

MSZ055-056-064>066-072>074-111605-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-MARION MS-LAMAR MS-JONES MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
FORREST MS-COVINGTON MS-
1019 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

...STRONG 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE PINEBELT IN SE MS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 30 TO 40 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF MARTINVILLE TO 4 MILES EAST
OF SUNRISE AT 1019 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN COVINGTON...NORTHERN FORREST...EASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...
SOUTHWESTERN JONES...NORTHERN LAMAR...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MARION...
SIMPSON AND WESTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3108 8933 3159 8982 3196 9007 3205 8993
      3204 8973 3214 8973 3178 8949 3141 8914
      3119 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1519Z 056DEG 17KT 3203 8978 3173 8958
          3129 8916

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1113 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SEBASTOPOL              32.57N 89.33W
07/11/2013  E4.00 INCH       SCOTT              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN SEBASTOPOL
            NEAR HIGHWAY 21.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1120 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARTHAGE                32.74N 89.53W
07/11/2013                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF A VEHICLE STALLED IN FLOOD WATERS AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF HENDERSON STREET AND SOUTH PEARL STREET.

&&

DCOX

MSZ063>065-072>074-111655-
MARION MS-LAWRENCE MS-LAMAR MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-FORREST MS-
COVINGTON MS-
1126 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1126 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HEBRON TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MAXIE AT 1124 AM CDT...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON...SOUTHERN FORREST...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAMAR...EASTERN LAWRENCE AND MARION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3100 8935 3100 8941 3097 8943 3097 8947
      3101 8951 3100 8973 3111 8993 3173 9017
      3173 8979 3115 8928 3099 8913 3091 8913
      3091 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1624Z 270DEG 14KT 3166 9000 3115 8955
          3084 8903

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1142 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARTHAGE                32.74N 89.53W
07/11/2013                   LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF WATER APPROACHING SOME HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN
            CARTHAGE. REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DCOX

MSZ042-043-048-049-054-055-111720-
SIMPSON MS-RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-HINDS MS-COPIAH MS-YAZOO MS-
1151 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1151 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WERE LOCATED ACROSS MADISON...
RANKIN...EASTERN HINDS...AND EASTERN YAZOO COUNTIES AT 1149 AM CDT.
THE MOST INTENSE STORM...CAPABLE OF ALSO PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH...WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF FLORA.  ALL THE STORMS WERE MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN YAZOO...NORTH CENTRAL COPIAH...
HINDS...MADISON...RANKIN AND NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3251 8982 3201 8981 3199 9068 3266 9051
      3287 8990
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 354DEG 16KT 3216 9028

AEG