Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Jackson, MS

095 
WGUS74 KJAN 051959
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
259 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

MSC049-052045-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0083.000000T0000Z-130705T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HINDS MS-
259 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY...

AT 256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IS DEPICTING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED NORTH. HOWEVER...
ONGOING FLASH FLOODING COULD STILL BE ONGOING OR IMMANENT. ESTIMATED
RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE INCHES...HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR. SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH
THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
MONITORED.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOLTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 9051 3239 9028 3222 9036 3223 9053

$$

JA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1053 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

.UPDATE...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES
STREAMING IN ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY FOR POTIONS OF THE
EAST...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO AROUND 90
WEST. ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE QPF
ACROSS EASTERN MS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINS WILL EXIST.
/27/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIG E OF I-55 WL GRADUALLY TREND VFR OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO VFR THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS XPCTD TO INCREASE THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND E OF I-55...WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY XPCTD OVRNGT. MVFR IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN 07-13Z TOMORROW MORNING FOR AERODROMES ALONG/S OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE PKWY. /BK/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO SOME MODIFICATIONS FROM
WHAT WE HAD BEEN ENJOYING THIS WEEK. MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE
OVER THE REGION. THIS IS INDICATIVE BY THE 1.8 INCH PW VALUE OFF THE
00Z KJAN SOUNDING. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH EVEN SOME 70S NOTED. THIS IS ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES
MOISTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE
UPPER TROUGH BEING LOCATED TO OUR WEST WITH MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUING TO FEED INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND FURTHER
EAST INTO ALABAMA. A LITTLE BIT OF ASCENT HAS AIDED IN THE
CONTINUATION OF THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT BUT THESE ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY BUT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE GREATER. THIS COMES
AS THE SFC BOUNDARY NUDGES A LITTLE TO THE WEST...BETTER ASCENT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND MOISTURE INCREASES OVER A GREATER
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAD BEEN INTO AL/GA/FL BUT THIS SHIFTS A LITTLE WEST TODAY AND
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PW VALUES AROUND 2.1 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT
FROM NEAR THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE MS/AL STATE LINE. THE LEAST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE
DELTA...WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO HANG ON A BIT LONGER ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.  THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW TO ALLOW STORMS TO KEEP MOVING. HOWEVER SOME OF THESE
RAINS COULD BE EFFICIENT AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES. THIS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY AS THE STORMS THAT DEVIATED FROM
THE FLOW TENDED TO BE SLOWER AND DID PRODUCE A BIT OF RAINFALL. WILL
MAKE A SMALL MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANY ASCENT CAN MINGLE WITH THE SEMI-
TROPICAL AIRMASS TO KEEP THESE ONGOING PAST DAYTIME HEATING.

ON SATURDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS
TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FURTHER INTO THE REGION AND POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE PRESENT FOR ALL AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS WITH
BEST COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN IN THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
FALL JUST SHORT AND MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S AS RAIN/CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LIMIT INSOLATION ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. /28/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS...DEPARTING TROUGH ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY FLAT MID/UPPER RIDING FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE THE PESKY TROUGH AXIS LIFT TO THE NE.
THE RESULTING LEFT OVER WEAKNESS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BETTER
THAN AVG PRECIP POTENTIAL AS DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER
A SOLID PORTION OF THE CWA. BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTHERN
HALF.

FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...FLAT UPPER RIDING WILL DEVELOP.
THE EURO AND GFS HAVE A SIMILAR MID LEVEL PATTERN...BUT THE GFS IS
MORE MOIST THUS GENERATING BETTER POPS EACH DAY. THE EURO IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS EACH DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THAT
SCENARIO. STILL...SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...THIS RUN OF THE GFS HAS WARMED SOME FOR HIGH THIS WEEK. THAT
FITS THE PREV THINKING AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO WHAT THAT GUIDANCE
IS OFFERING. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  70  86  72 /  34  55  53  28
MERIDIAN      84  70  83  71 /  63  71  76  37
VICKSBURG     89  68  88  71 /  22  43  39  20
HATTIESBURG   85  72  84  72 /  69  57  71  36
NATCHEZ       88  69  87  71 /  28  26  38  20
GREENVILLE    89  69  88  72 /  15  40  34  19
GREENWOOD     88  69  87  70 /  24  55  49  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-
     064>066-072>074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1023 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-061530-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1023 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EAST
OF A COLUMBIA TO STARKVILLE LINE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF FLASH FLOOD
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-
040>042-047-053-059>061-061530-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-
1023 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK