Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE LOOKS
TO BE SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
THAT SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. DEW POINTS WILL FALL FROM THE UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
THE 40S IN ITS WAKE. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 60S AT MOST SITES. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST OVER OUR AREA. THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES BEING THE COLDEST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S AND PATCHY
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. /27/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WE WILL GET COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES.
THE EURO AND THE GFS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION. BOTH MODELS AMPLIFY THIS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THE RAIN
FASTER ON MONDAY EVENING FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE EURO WAS SLOWER.
OPTED TO GO AFTER THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION. THE EURO BRINGS IN
CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR
A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING IT IN THE HWO AS WE FOCUS ON THE FIRST STORM
SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN
WILL WITH A BLEND OF MAV GMOS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ON POPS MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EURO GUIDANCE. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
WIDESPREAD FASHION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...THUNDER...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE ACCOMPANYING AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LATTER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE PERIODS OF IFR FLIGHT
CAT REDUCTIONS AND IFR CEILINGS COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TONIGHT (IN THE WEST) THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING (IN THE EAST) FROM 9Z THROUGH 16 OR 17Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT SOME VERY PATCHY AND SHALLOW FOG IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  61  36  70 / 100  24   9   0
MERIDIAN      54  63  35  72 /  99  45  13   0
VICKSBURG     48  65  35  71 / 100  11   6   0
HATTIESBURG   57  65  36  72 /  82  50  13   0
NATCHEZ       46  62  36  68 / 100  12   9   0
GREENVILLE    44  61  38  69 /  93   9   3   0
GREENWOOD     46  62  36  70 / 100  11   4   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034>036-040>042.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

27/17/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-192100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
351 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
POTENT DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AND
SHEARED AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS HIGH AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND
TORNADOES. THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TORNADOES EXISTS.
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM FOR THESE AREAS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT
AND RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST A FEW INCHES PER HOUR WILL LIKELY BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SMALL
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS CAN EXPECT RISES IN WATER
LEVELS.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LAZ024>026-MSZ029-030-032-033-037-038-043>045-047>050-053>056-
059>063-192100-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WEBSTER-CLAY-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-
WINSTON-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
351 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALSO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO AN UNSTABLE
AND SHEARED AIR MASS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. A TORNADO WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 11 PM.

IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT
AS RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOURS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS
AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OBSERVE RISES IN WATER LEVELS.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

MSZ031-039-046-051-052-057-058-064>066-072>074-192100-
LOWNDES-NOXUBEE-KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
351 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A
POTENT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION INTO AN
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND SHEARED AIR MASS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
TWENTY. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             5 NW WAYSIDE            33.31N 91.11W
04/18/2013  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BRIDGE

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
458 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE CROSSETT          33.11N 91.95W
04/18/2013                   ASHLEY             AR   PUBLIC

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ON A HOUSE ALONG SYCAMORE CIRCLE

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
512 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE CROSSETT           33.17N 91.92W
04/18/2013                   ASHLEY             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF A TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 133 NORTH.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILMOT                  33.06N 91.57W
04/18/2013                   ASHLEY             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF A TREE DOWN IN WILMOT.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TORNADO          NITTA YUMA              33.02N 90.85W
04/18/2013                   SHARKEY            MS   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TORNADO CROSSED US HIGHWAY 61

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
549 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S TRANSYLVANIA        32.60N 91.18W
04/18/2013                   EAST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A GRAIN SILO WAS BLOWN ACROSS US HIGHWAY 65 AND POWER
            POLES WERE DOWNED. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

DL