Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Jackson, MS

133 
WGUS74 KJAN 141312
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
812 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

MSC091-141445-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-130414T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION MS-
812 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR
MARION COUNTY...

AT 811 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN NEAR IMPROVE...OR 9 MILES 
EAST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE INCHES...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE 
PAST THREE HOURS.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE 
NEXT HOUR. WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8983 3107 8985 3107 8992 3112 8995
      3113 9002 3117 9002 3118 9004 3124 9005
      3139 9004 3139 8982 3143 8982 3143 8965
      3100 8966

$$

OLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO THE ARKLAMISS
ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF TIMING SUGGESTED BY PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. RAPID
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH EXIT REGION OF IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET STREAK
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INITIALLY LED TO SUFFICIENT
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR DISORGANIZED HAIL-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SE LA...AND THOSE STORMS DIMINISHED A BIT AS THEY REACHED THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. NOW
THAT THE RAIN/TSTMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD...IT APPEARS THE RISK FOR
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT...IN LINE WITH
THINKING FROM THE EVENING UPDATE. ALSO...THE LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT
THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT A WAKE LOW WIND EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL FROM BECOMING EXTREME...BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE PINEBELT REGION.
HAVE INCREASED GUIDANCE QPF TO BETTER REFLECT THIS THINKING.

AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...SKIES WILL ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OVER A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND RAIN-SOAKED GROUND...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AFTER A WARM AND
DRY MONDAY...A REPEAT OF STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RATHER
STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM/MOIST GULF AIR ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED ARE GOING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S.

THINGS WILL CHANGE HEADED INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A TAD COOLER ALTHOUGH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWERS 80S ARE STILL EXPECTED (WARMEST ACROSS
THE EAST). THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DANCE AROUND WITH FRONTAL TIMING
BUT REMAIN FOCUSED IN THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME. THE ANTECEDENT WARM/MOIST ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT EXACT DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO
COVERAGE/INTENSITY REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. SURFACE DEW
POINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
AND COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SBCAPE VALUES NEAR/IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG ACROSS AREAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BEST HEIGHT FALLS/SHEAR LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE CONFINED
ACROSS AREAS FURTHER NORTH THAN SOUTH...BUT WON'T TRY TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THU AFTN/EVE.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A 1025MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS/POPS...I DID CONTINUE THE TREND OF TRIMMING AFTN
POPS TUE/WED AS A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE REGION KEEPS THINGS IN
CHECK. WITH THAT SAID...WOULDN'T BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTN/NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPS LOOKED
GOOD UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES WHERE COOLER HIGHS/LOWS OFFERED BY THE
EURO MOS FOR THE WEEKEND SEEMED A BIT MORE REASONABLE. /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HBG/PIB AREA...CEILINGS ARE STILL MOSTLY IN VFR CATEGORY. EXPECT
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RAIN WILL REDUCE CIGS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A GTR- HKS-TVR LINE. WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AFTER RAIN HAS ENDED WHEN FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION IS
EXPECTED. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  63  85  68 /  87   7   5  11
MERIDIAN      70  58  82  65 / 100  10   5  11
VICKSBURG     75  61  85  67 /  60   5   6  11
HATTIESBURG   77  63  86  69 /  99   7   8   7
NATCHEZ       76  62  84  70 /  88   4   8   7
GREENVILLE    75  61  83  67 /  27   6  10  12
GREENWOOD     75  62  83  68 /  35   6   5  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

MSZ054>066-072>074-151030-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
523 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMMISS. TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO OR THREE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW-LYING
AREAS. IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL AND 35 TO 45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE ARKLAMISS FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPDATES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>053-151030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
523 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA..AND MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE ARKLAMISS FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPDATES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC/BK