Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1039 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...SOGGY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH
OF HOUSTON TX. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE ENEWD...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE A WEST TO EAST AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE EXACT PLACEMENT VARIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THIS WILL BE ALONG OR NEAR THE I-20
CORRIDOR. LOOKING AT THE RADAR...THE MAIN AXIS OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
LIFTED PRETTY FAR NORTHWARD...SO IT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-20. WITH RESPECT TO
AMOUNTS...WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING QPF MAXING
OUT AROUND 1-1.5 IN ACROSS THE AREA...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE OF A NARROW AREA OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WATER
ALREADY ON THE GROUND...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TURNING TO THE STORM THREAT...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD...THE
SOUTH PART OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. SUB SEVERE HAIL
REPORTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED THROUGH THE MORNING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE
SITUATED OVER SE LOUISIANA AND JUST OFF THE COAST. AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE
SURFACE BASED AND GIVEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE...DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE A THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON IN ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

SOME MINOR UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO TEMPS THIS MORNING...NAMELY TO
LOWER HIGHS IN THE NW. POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT LESS
COVERAGE IN THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND UPDATES WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE
INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE SOUTH MS SITES SUCH AS HBG/PIB ARE IFR NOW AND MAY
REMAIN MAINLY AT THIS LEVEL INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID AREA OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED STORMS NOW PUSHING NORTH TOWARD I-20 WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND GENERALLY BRING MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR HBG/PIB BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS
A RISK. OTHERWISE MOST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST SMALL HAIL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE EAST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TODAY. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 507 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013/
EXPECT DRYING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ZIPS BY THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO ANY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL. /EC/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRANSITING THE REGION THE LATTER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE DEEP SOUTH REMAINS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
SEASONAL FOR MID FEB WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS LATE FRIDAY USHERING IN SOME CHILLY CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S AS H8 TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6 TO -10C RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IS SCARCE (PW'S 0.5-0.6 IN)...STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD
COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF. DECIDED TO CUT THE AGGRESSIVE MEX POPS
LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IF PRECIP
GETS GOING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT (IF AT ALL)
WITH MOST LOCALES JUST SEEING SOME FLURRIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ENSUE. THE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER S/WV MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD SET UP A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION HEADED INTO
TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED BACK
NORTH TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AFTER THE PREVIOUS
FRONT CLEARS OUT THE NORTHERN GULF. WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT.

CHANGES TO THE GFS MOS WERE MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE I LOWERED
TEMPS A TAD TOWARD THE COOLER EC NUMBERS. /BK/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ025>033-035>042.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ043>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

AR...NONE.

&&

DL/BB/EC/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

MSZ062>066-072>074-131230-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
622 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. ADDITIONAL PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE HEAVY
RAIN FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>061-131230-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
622 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR .

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG WEATHER
DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. THE HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND THE
MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE UP TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MENDENHALL              31.96N 89.87W
02/12/2013                   SIMPSON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW STREETS FLOODING AROUND MENDENHALL

&&

DL

MSZ027-028-035>037-042-121725-
ATTALA MS-MONTGOMERY MS-HUMPHREYS MS-HOLMES MS-CARROLL MS-YAZOO MS-
1028 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1028 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

...THUNDERSTORM HEADING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING
LOTS OF SMALL HAIL...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THORNTON AT 1027 AM
CST...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL YAZOO...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...CENTRAL
HOLMES...SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHERN ATTALA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3346 8938 3346 8940 3343 8942 3344 8945
      3343 8946 3329 8946 3328 8932 3324 8931
      3324 8932 3291 9049 3308 9057 3347 8946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 249DEG 60KT 3303 9041

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1105 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     HAIL             SICILY ISLAND           31.85N 91.66W
02/12/2013  E1.25 INCH       CATAHOULA          LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DL

MSZ043-048-049-121800-
RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-HINDS MS-
1108 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1108 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

...INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING INTO THE RESERVIOR AREA...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED OVER CLINTON AT 1108 AM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN HINDS...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTHERN
RANKIN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3260 8978 3248 8976 3245 8976 3223 9035
      3239 9045 3272 8974 3269 8972 3264 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 243DEG 37KT 3235 9030

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1109 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     HAIL             3 SW SICILY ISLAND      31.82N 91.70W
02/12/2013  E1.00 INCH       CATAHOULA          LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN SICILY ISLAND

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1142 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HAIL             ST. JOSEPH              31.92N 91.24W
02/12/2013  E0.88 INCH       TENSAS             LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DL