Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
452 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY INDIANA AND OHIO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE ON TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION...ONE AN EASTERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MICHIGAN MCS AND THE
OTHER A LESS ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTER ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. THE
EASTERN IOWA ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS AN EASTERN KANSAS/CENTRAL MISSOURI MCS
INTERCEPTS MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW. WEST-TO-EAST STEERING FLOW WITH
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES SHOULD
ALLOW THE WEAKENING MICHIGAN MCS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. AS
A RESULT CUT POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MID MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TRAILING LINE OF
CONVECTION.

THE NORTHERN LAKES SHORTWAVE AND MCS WILL FORCE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION...POSSIBLY STRONG (SBCAPE TO 3000 J/KG) DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER. THIS COUPLED WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR HINTS
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO IT. ALSO...MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE MORNING NORTHERN LAKES
WAVE, DRY ENTRAINMENT ABOVE 800 MB, AND THE IWX CWA BECOMING
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A MERGING UPPER MIDWEST 110-120
KT UPPER JET SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY ORGANIZATION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HELD WITH CHANCE/SCT POPS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS USING A HRRR/SPC WRF COMPROMISE FOR HOURLY DETAIL
IN GRIDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN FORM ALONG THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

BY TONIGHT...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST MANITOBA NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY/CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
WITH BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FRONT UNDER THIS
STRONGER FLOW SHOULD SAG INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL NEGATIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WILL ENSURE
DRY/COOLER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

CONTINUED WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM
FORECAST. DIFFICULTIES REMAIN WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVES EMANATING
FROM EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AZ MID LEVEL CYCLONE AS WELL AS PARTIAL
EJECTIONS FROM BLOCKED SYSTEM OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO LIKELY LIE OUT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF OHIO
RIVER BY 12 UTC THU...LACK OF DEPTH IN BACKED NORTHERLY FLOW
SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF AT RESIDUAL MUCAPE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY THU ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CWA. PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN ALREADY GENEROUS WESTERLY FLOW PER
E/W ELONGATED WESTERN ONTARIO VORTEX...CONTRIBUTING TO DECENT 40
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. RELEGATED HIGHEST CHANCES TO ONLY FAR
SOUTH...WITH SLIGHT CONTRACTION OVER PRIOR FORECAST GIVEN LACK OF
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. SLIGHTLY
BROADER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT PER SECOND WAVES SOUTHERLY 925-850MB
BENT ELICITING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. STILL HAVE
MAINTAINED CONSTRAINT OVER DUBIOUS VERACITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
MARRED BY SERIAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. CONTD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY AS ROTATION OF INTENSE SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHERN
ALBERTA TO MARKEDLY SHARPEN NORTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES TROF.
ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW TO CURTAIL INSTABILITY/CHANCES NWRN-NRN
CWA...AGAIN FAVORING SOUTHERN CWA. THEREAFTER DRY FORECAST FOR
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM. TROF AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD IN EARNEST THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO FAR EASTERN CANADA
THEN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12 UTC SAT. ENSEMBLE GFS MOS POP
AVERAGES QUICKLY DWINDLE TO WELL BELOW CLIMO...WITH STANDARD
DEVIATIONS IN 1-3 RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY AIRMASS PER
PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE WITH WEAKER/HIGHER BELTED 5H TROFFING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AMID MEAN RIDGING ACROSS
WESTERN STATES INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF WEAK MCV REMNANT...WITH INVERSION/CAP
BETWEEN 800-700 MB SHOWING UP NICELY ON EVENING AMDAR SOUNDINGS.
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MAINLY MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13-14Z. CONFIDENCE DECREASES
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM A
WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN MCS SLOWS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SBN AREA BY MID
MORNING...AND MAYBE AS FAR SOUTH AS FWA BY EARLY/MID AFTN PER
LATEST HRRR/SPC WRF ITERATIONS. MVFR AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF IFR VIS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY. BETTER CHANCES AT SBN WHERE A TEMPO
MVFR/-TSRA GROUP WAS ADDED. LESSER CONFIDENCE AT FWA WARRANTED
KEEPING WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC VFR/VCTS GROUP HERE. THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH SBN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND FWA IN THE
EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
108 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

INZ003-004-MIZ077-071745-
BERRIEN MI-LA PORTE IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-
108 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN BERRIEN...NORTHEASTERN
LA PORTE AND NORTHWESTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES...

AT 105 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR THREE OAKS...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LA PORTE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BUCHANAN...
  NEW CARLISLE...
  HUDSON LAKE...
  GALIEN...
  DAYTON...
  CHAIN-O-LAKES AND LYDICK...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4196 8623 4165 8624 4172 8672 4181 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 261DEG 18KT 4176 8660

CEO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

INZ004-MIZ077-078-071845-
BERRIEN MI-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH IN-
159 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN CASS...
SOUTHEASTERN BERRIEN...NORTHERN ST. JOSEPH AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
ELKHART COUNTIES...

AT 156 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUCHANAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BUCHANAN...
  NILES...
  GEORGETOWN...
  GRANGER...
  ROSELAND...
  EDWARDSBURG...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4189 8607 4169 8607 4171 8652 4171 8653
      4176 8652 4176 8653 4185 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 269DEG 19KT 4178 8643

CEO