Small Craft Advisory 34, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
414 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

ISSUES ABOUND THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...PCPN
CHANCES...FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

COLD FRONT HAS NOT MADE A LOT OF PROGRESS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...PRESENTLY LYING FROM NORTH OF LAFAYETTE TO NORTHWEST OF FT
WAYNE TO SOUTH OF DEFIANCE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S ALONG
THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 60S IN SE AREAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN FORMING ON AND OFF ALL NIGHT BUT HAVEN'T AMOUNTED TO MUCH. 850
MB FRONT REMAINS LOCATED FROM CNTRL LWR MI INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TO IOWA AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS. LARGE AREA OF PRECIP WAS MOVING
ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN LK MI INTO CNTRL/N LWR MI. ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN/STORMS EXTENDED FROM N MISSOURI INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
IOWA. HI RES MODELS SLOWLY BRING THE MO/IA ACTIVITY ENE WITH LLJ
INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF IT WITH 50 KTS ALREADY INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.  00Z SPC 4KM WRF APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPS PRECIP ACROSS NW AREAS THIS
MORNING...SPREADING SE WITH TIME. HAVE TRIED TO ADD FURTHER DETAIL
TO THE GRIDS BUT FURTHER REFINEMENTS ARE LIKELY AS WE AWAIT TO SEE
HOW THE MESOSCALE FEATURES PLAY OUT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WARM SECTOR
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHERN/SW COUNTIES. RAP
SURGES IT BACK NORTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING WAVE. WHILE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS RAP HAVE TRIED TO
CAPTURE EXPECTED TRENDS WITH A COLD DAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S SOUTH. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH STRONGER CELLS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DESPITE CAPES PUSHING 1000 J/KG AND
FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER 40 KTS.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
ALL MODELS POINT TOWARDS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS.
SEVERAL MODELS STILL CRANK OUT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S LWR MI/FAR N INDIANA. FOR THE TIME BEING
WILL CONTINUE FLOODING THREAT MENTION IN HWO BUT NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL EFFECTS OF DAYTIME CONVECTION CAN BE ASSESSED. SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP INSTABILITY ELEVATED BUT
STILL SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THUNDER MENTION. LARGE TEMP GRADIENT
TONIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

AMPLIFIED FLW PATTN TYPICAL OF SPRING TO CONT THIS PD. EWD EJECTION
OF DEEP/NEG HGT ANOMALY OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE WRN
LAKES FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON PER SPECTRAL CONSENSUS AND IN LIGHT OF
XPCD MID LVL DRY SLOTTING FRI WILL WHITTLE DOWN SRN EXTENT OF
MENTIONABLE POPS. OTRWS TEMPS BACK TO WELL BLO NORMALS WITHIN STG LL
CAA REGIME.

COLD TEMPS XPCD TO CONT THROUGH SAT BFR LL COLD POCKET BEGINS TO
MODIFY AHD OF NEXT STG DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY
SUN. DECIDED PREFERENCE TWD ECM/GEM CAMP IN HOLDING MORE INTENSE
CLOSED MID LVL CYCLONE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS OF WHICH WILL DELAY EWD
FNTL INTRUSION AND ASSOCD PCPN. THUS WILL BACK POP MENTION OFF UNTIL
SUN NIGHT WEST/MON EAST. HWVR NRN EJECTION OF THIS SYS ALG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP ALG ORPHANED SWWD
TRAILING FNTL BNDRY LT PD AND WILL HOLD W/PRIOR GRIDDED POPS DYS6-7.
TEMPS MODERATING BACK TWD NORMAL FROM MON ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

MESSY MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND MULTIPLE BOUNDARY
LOCATION WILL RAISE HAVOC ON TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT WAS WELL THROUGH KSBN AND MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS
KFWA. MARINE LAYER HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT INTO KSBN WITH NE FLOW
ADVECTING IN 4000 FT DECK AND KEEPING 200 FOOT CIGS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST FOR NOW. HAVE INCREASED CIGS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY CHANGE IN LL FLOW THAT COULD QUICKLY
SWING THE LIFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND ATTEMPTING TO
GROW...GENERALLY SCT IN NATURE. CIGS/VSBYS DON'T APPEAR TO BE
MAJORLY IMPACTED OTHER THAN BRIEF EXCURSION INTO MVFR WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO KFWA TO HANDLE TRENDS BUT KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW.

BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL COME WEDS MORNING AS 850 MB FRONT TO
THE NORTH SINKS SOUTH SOMEWHAT AND ENERGY FROM CONVECTION TO THE
WEST MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NEW 00Z 4KM SPC WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A VERY
GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE US AND BASED ON ITS
TRENDS...AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN 2 WINDOWS..ONE
STARTING AFTER 15Z THROUGH ABOUT 21Z WEDS THEN A BRIEF LULL BEFORE
THE SFC LOW AND MUCH DEEPER LIFT AND MSTR ARRIVE TO BRING
RAIN/STORMS WEDS NGT. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CIGS IN LATER
PERIOD BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST GOING WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SETTLING IN. HOPING BY 12Z ISSUANCE TO BE ABLE TO
PIN DOWN BETTER TIMING OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND ADD FURTHER
DETAILS. REGARDLESS...ROUGH FLYING WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
437 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-110900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
437 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013 /337 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
6.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69 THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-110900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
437 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE