Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
337 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 90S...WITH 70S AND 80S BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

FOCUS OF FORECAST ON NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS WITH CONVECTION CHANCES
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB TO AOA 90 MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AND FAR NE AREAS (WHICH COULD STILL MAKE IT
AT 20Z). ONSHORE WIND HAS NOW SETTLED INTO KBEH WITH A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN TEMPS AFTER A PEAK OF 89 A FEW HOURS AGO. AS MANY OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS INDICATED...LL MSTR HAS BEEN MIXED OUT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 60 TO 63 DEGREE RANGE FOR DEWPTS. THE EXCEPTION WAS
ALONG A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS NOW STALLED OUT FROM WOLCOTT IN TO
COLUMBIA CITY TO MONROE MI. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 2 MANAGED TO POP
ACROSS MAINLY NW OHIO...BUT DIED JUST AS QUICK. 18Z DTX SOUNDING
SHOWED ANY CAPPING HAS BEEN ERODED. HOWEVER...LACK OF FORCING NW OF
THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL ARRIVAL OF
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM QUAD CITIES IOWA TO
THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOL THUNDER WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE AND SHOWING SIGNS OF TRYING TO EXPAND
SWARD. WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC POPS IN FAR NW AREAS AND BLEND INTO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVE TO REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WIDELY
SCT CONVECTION AS COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH. SVR RISK LOOKING
MINIMAL WITH MAIN FOCUS WELL SE OF THE AREA (16Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
REMOVED MOST OF THE AREA FROM SLGT RISK) BUT STILL WORTHY OF
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR HAS SUGGESTED OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING BACK ACROSS
ILLINOIS/IOWA COULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. POPS
LATER TONIGHT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOMEWHAT NW WARD...BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION TO LOW.

AS NOTED IN PAST DISCUSSION...AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE COOLER
THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT PRETTY SEASONABLE FOR MID SEPT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. STRONGER TROUGH AND PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS DYNAMICALLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE BUT SERIOUSLY LACKING MSTR (MORE SO THAN TODAY). A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT FAR NE AREAS LATE THURS
AM INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL FROPA BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

SIG SW TROUGH OVR SRN SK WILL CONT TO AMPLIFY SEWD THROUGH THE ST
LAW VALLEY SHRT TERM W/RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SECONDARY DISTURBANCE QUICK
ON ITS HEELS LT THU ALL CARVING OUT A RESPECTABLY DEEP TROUGH OVR
NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. STG SFC ANTICYCLONE BLDG SWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY AS THIS EVOLVES WILL BRING ABT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SO FAR AND IN STARK CONTRAST TO HEAT OF LAST TWO DAYS. PER MOS
TRENDS AND IN LIGHT OF TEMPS ACRS CNTRL CANADA SEE SOME VALIDITY TO
MET MOS IMPLIED MID-UPR 30 MINS SAT AM UNDERNEATH CRUX OF SFC RIDGE.

REGARDLESS BREVITY OF DEEP CAA SURGE SHRT LIVED W/PROGRESSIVE FLW
ALOFT CONTG...ALTHOUGH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHLD EXTEND THROUGH SAT
BFR TEMPERED MODERATION ENSUES TIED TO THE BEGINNINGS OF LARGER
SCALE PATTN SHIFT ACRS NOAM NOTED IN MOST MED RANGE GUIDANCE AT LONG
RANGE...DYS 6-10 AND OF WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT IN A MUCH WETTER/WARMER 8-14
DY PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WANING
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA. AT 1730Z THIS
FEATURE WAS LOCATED FROM PONTIAC MI SE TO BETWEEN WARSAW AND
COLUMBIA CITY TO MONTICELLO. WHILE ACCAS FIELD HAS BEEN TRYING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THIS FEATURE...STRONG MIXING HAS DECIMATED
EARLIER CLOUD COVER WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOW BEING NOTED ALONG AND
EST OF THE BOUNDARY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEARS NEARLY MET. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HINGE ON COLD
FRONT DROPPING IN THIS EVENING. A STRAY SHOWER/STORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT KFWA AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSES
THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH CURRENT CU FIELD. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INHERITED TIMING OF TEMPO GROUP AND LOW CONFIDENCE...REMOVED
MENTION OF ANY CONVECTION FROM BOTH SITES. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR INCLUSION OF CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN IN LATER
AMENDMENTS/00Z TAFS.

HAVE ALSO PUSHED BACK MAIN WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT WITH SOMEWHAT
SLOWER ARRIVAL INITIALLY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
327 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-121000-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
327 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013 /227 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-MIZ077-121000-
LA PORTE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
327 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013 /227 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH WAVES AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-121000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
327 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
538 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THREE RIVERS            41.94N  85.63W
09/11/2013                   ST. JOSEPH         MI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

&&

KG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
559 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MENDON                  42.01N  85.45W
09/11/2013                   ST. JOSEPH         MI   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON GARAGE

&&

KG

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