River Flood Warning 70, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
431 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS POSSIBLE BECOMING SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE AND FLOODING
EVENT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS PAST
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM
WHITE COUNTY NNE TOWARDS SOUTHERN KOSC COUNTY AND EAST INTO FORT
WAYNE. DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES BEING VERIFIED BY GROUND REPORTS OF
2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING SINCE THIS PAST EVENING. SEVERE THREAT
HAS ENDED WITH REMAINDER OF TOR WATCH DROPPED WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. STRATIFORM RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z WITH A QUICK WIND DOWN AFTER THAT. CHALLENGES WILL THEN FOCUS ON
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND INTERACTS
WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MOISTURE TO SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL STG-SVR
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH OVERNIGHT ISSUES TAKING PRECEDENCE
NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED TO GRIDS WITH BEST WINDOW STILL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR CONVECTION. AMOUNT OF CLEARING IN THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP DETERMINE CONCERNS FOR SVR THREAT VS
HVY RAIN ONLY. DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS AREA IN SLGT RISK WITH 30 PROBS FOR
WIND DAMAGE IN SE HALF. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.
AS FOR FLOODING...MUCH DISCUSSION TOOK PLACE REGARDING FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER WITH MAIN FLOODING CONFINED TO A NARROW AREA AND MODELS
OFFERING NO HELP ON HOW THE PRECIP WILL UNFOLD HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY WATCH.

FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS
ARRIVING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

LONG TERM ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH ALLBLEND USED FOR NEARLY ALL
GRIDS DUE TO CONVECTIVE/FLOODING ISSUES PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA. SECONDARY FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND MAY BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. HAVE HELD WITH
GENERAL SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN LATER PERIODS WITH TEMPS MODERATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 144 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

MAIN FOCUS OF TAFS ON NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL IMPACT BOTH TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. KSBN WILL LIKELY SEEING A GLANCING BLOW BUT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ADDING THUNDER MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS. GREATER CHANCES
FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF THUNDER AT KFWA AS EARLIER CONVECTION
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM WESTERN INDIANA.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WITH
EVOLUTION OF EVENT UNKNOWN AND ONGOING EVENT NO FURTHER DETAIL
HAS BEEN ADDED TO TAFS AND WILL ADDRESS WITH 12Z TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
452 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-020900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
452 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013 /352 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF STREETS AND STREAMS INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RISES IN THE WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT TO DUE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MID WEEK FROM RECENT
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REPORTS OF FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-020900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
452 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

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