Flood Watch 3, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS 2
BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN LEADING EDGE OF AREA OF RAIN WAS
ADVANCING TOWARDS BOTH SITES. AREA PUSHING THROUGH NW PARTS OF THE
AREA IS LOCATED IN STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NE FLOW TO LIKELY
WORK AGAINST POTENTIAL FOR MIX DOWN OF STRONG WIND FIELDS. AREAS
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAS MORE POTENTIAL ON NOSE OF
55 TO 60 KT LLJ AND NICE REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE/NOT BUT ALIGNMENT
WITH MEAN MOVEMENT NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE. WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 3 AM EDT BUT WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...PERIOD OF NEEDED RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW. 3 HR PRESSURE FALL OF
AROUND 2 MB AND RISE OF ABOUT 3 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
LINE HAS BEEN STIRRING UP WINDS BEHIND THE PRECIP. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS BUT NO SIG CHANGES FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION GIVEN ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER.
IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH TEMPS IN LOW
40S FAR NORTH AND UPPER 70S SOUTH. QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO INLAND LAKE BREEZE
PROVING DIFFICULT SCENARIO WITH RESPECT TO ACCURATE HOURLY GRIDS AND
TRENDS. NO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS HANDLING SITUATION WITH TRENDS
SHOWING WARMING ACROSS THE CWA INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE MANUALLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS WITH CONSTANT UPDATES AND THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWS BREAKS TO SOUTHWEST FILLING IN
FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT AS MAIN AREA OF LIFT AND
THETA E MOVES IN. COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY WITH
RAIN DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AND COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN.
SOUTHEAST TO POSSIBLY GET INTO WARM SECTOR AGAIN BUT TRICKY
DEPENDING ON WHERE APPROACHING SFC WAVES TRACKS. BLENDED NAM12 AND
SREF FOR TEMPS AND WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST OHIO THURSDAY EVENING EVENTUALLY TAKING FOCUS OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS EASTWARD. TROWAL FEATURE MAY PROLONG RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT LIKELY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. RENEWED DPVA WITH SMALLER SCALE VORTS
ROTATING THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CAA SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. PRECIP MAY END AS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTH FRIDAY EVENING. UPPER FLOW TO
DEAMPLIFY FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OF THERMAL TROUGH. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA TO
COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS INTACT
FOR SUNDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LONGWAVE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH-EASTERN CONUS RIDGE DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD KEEP
LOCAL AREA IN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALSO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANOTHER LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SPRAWLING OUT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL LARGE SOUTH TO NORTH TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MON-WED...ALTHOUGH ONCE UPPER
PATTERN AND SMALLER SCALE WAVES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED...A TIGHTER
GRADIENT IN TEMPS MAY BE NEEDED. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH
CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO MAY NEED TO
ASSESS NEED FOR TS INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

MAIN FOCUS OF TAFS WILL BE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS WITH FEW
CHANGES BEYOND THAT PERIOD. FRONTAL ZONE WAS WORKING NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO 55 KT SSW LLJ NOTED ON KIND VWP. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS NEARLY CLEARED KFWA BUT WILL AFFECT
KSBN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
TAFS...LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS WAS ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS
OF INDIANA WITH A LINE OF INCREASED WIND POTENTIAL. STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC BUT LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSBN IN A FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO BRAINER ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
8Z...ASSUMING NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AS NOTED AT KFWA...THE CURRENT
LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ABOVE MENTIONED LINE
WITH QUICKLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 630Z AND 730Z. SIMILAR
WIND CONCERNS COULD EXIST WITH THIS AS WELL FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGH 9 OR 10Z. WILL NOT INCLUDE
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ATTM IN THE TAFS FOR EITHER SITE.

UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY THURS WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING MAY BE GONE BY LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL TRY
TO END PRECIP. AGAIN...WITH FOCUS ON EARLIER PERIOD ADDITIONAL
REFINEMENTS TO LATER PERIODS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

UPDATE...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
437 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-110900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
437 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013 /337 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
6.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69 THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-110900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
437 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
139 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

INZ022>024-032-110630-
CASS IN-GRANT IN-MIAMI IN-WABASH IN-
139 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD WESTERN GRANT...CASS...MIAMI...
AND WABASH COUNTIES...

AT 136 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOGANSPORT TO 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALTON TO 28 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  PERU AND GRISSOM AFB...
  FAIRMOUNT...
  MARION AND NORTH MANCHESTER...
  WABASH...
  WALTON...
  MEXICO...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN INDIANA.

LAT...LON 4058 8587 4058 8638 4070 8638 4071 8647
      4079 8647 4101 8579 4101 8568 4100 8568
      4100 8565 4040 8564 4040 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 228DEG 47KT 4076 8634 4058 8635
          4037 8652

NG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
206 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

INZ004-005-014>016-110630-
ELKHART IN-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-MARSHALL IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-
206 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD KOSCIUSKO...MARSHALL...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH...ELKHART AND NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 203 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PLYMOUTH TO ARGOS TO
ROCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BREMEN...
  WARSAW AND NAPPANEE...
  WINONA LAKE...
  BOURBON...
  MENTONE...
  WAKARUSA...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN INDIANA.

LAT...LON 4148 8568 4121 8569 4099 8633 4117 8635
      4140 8647 4176 8590
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 240DEG 51KT 4137 8635 4123 8623
          4105 8622

NG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>