Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Northern Indiana

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Branch County, MI, Cass County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Allen County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE WEATHER....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A
DYNAMIC SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

ELEVATED NON SEVERE CONVECTION (SCT SHRA/ISO THUNDER) WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF A PLAINS
EML/RIDGE MAY CLIP MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. BETTER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORMS AND ISOLATED HAIL WITH
STRONGER CELLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN WNW OF THE
LOCAL AREA...THANKS TO WEAKENING/VEERING OF THE LLJ THIS FAR EAST
RESULTING IN A LESS DEFINED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/INSTABILITY
AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A LULL IN THE PCPN/CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TOLL ROAD...AS INSTABILITY
AXIS/STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT MIXES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F
WITHIN THETA-E RIDGE) AND DIURNAL HEATING (TEMPS GENERALLY INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S) UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
BETWEEN 2500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STRONG CAP...21C AT 825 MB...ON DAVENPORT'S
00Z RAOB SHOULD KEEP SFC BASED SVR CONVECTION FROM FIRING ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH AT LEAST 19/20Z. HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING
ALOFT WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP BREAK THIS
CAP BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINABLE/ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER
APPROXIMATELY 20Z...BEST CHANCES NORTH OF HWY 30 AS CAPPED WARM
SECTOR LIKELY KEEPS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA DRY THROUGH 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE QLCS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
NOTED ABOVE CRESTS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AND AMPLIFIES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH THE ATTENDANT DEEPENING
SFC REFLECTION PROGGED TO TRACK EAST THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO. DEEP ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE / 50-60 KT MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX NEARLY PARALLEL TO A DEVELOPING 30-40 KNOT LLJ IN
A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT / SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A SEVERE QLCS.
USED A 00Z ARW/NMM/NAM COMPROMISE FOR TIMING HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE
AREA (HIGHEST 01-07Z). DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AS RIJ
MATERIALIZES REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW QLCS TORNADOES AS DEEPENING LOW (3-5MB PRESSURE FALLS) AIDS IN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL HELICITY. 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 30 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORTING THE INCREASED MESOVORTEX
POTENTIAL.

THE OTHER THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING. PWATS TO 2 INCHES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER NEAR
12 KFT HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO (HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK) AND
ESF (HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

LINGERING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ONGOING 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO MORE TIED INTO DEFORMATION-LIKE FORCING JUST TO WEST AND NORTH
OF DEPARTING DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO DEEPENING
NATURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALLOWING FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
STRONG ISALLOBARIC COUPLET. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN SLIGHTLY SPEEDING UP THE ENDING TIME OF POPS AND HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND DEPICTED MORE OF A MID TO LATE MORNING ENDING TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST AS STRONG LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BECOME THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/CAA SHOULD MAKE
FOR A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE EXPECTED.

MERGING POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH TO WORK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER
QUIET CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...POSITIVE LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS DAMPENED BY AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN TIER
TROUGH. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE TSRA POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO KEPT IN HIGHER CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SLOWING/STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASES LARGE SCALE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER ORGANIZED
UPSTREAM MCS COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LIKELY LOCATED
ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF RAINFALL WITH SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING HYDRO/RIVER
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY ALSO BE EXACERBATED. UPPER TROUGH WILL DAMPEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/QUEBEC LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL FRONT TO CONTINUE TO BE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO REMOVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST
OF THIS PERIOD. SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SEEM TO
FORMING FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD IN NEXT SFC HIGH SETTLING INTO THE
REGION AND HAVE KEPT DAY 7 DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

MINOR PERTURBATION WITHIN 50-60 KT AT 300 DEGREE FLOW ACROSS SWRN
GRTLKS REGION CONTRIBUTING TO FOCUSED/ELEVATED ASCENT...SUFFICIENT
TO SPAWN A FEW ISOLD-SCT TSRA FM NRN IL INTO ECNTL IN THIS EVENING.
OVERALL TREND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE CONTD STABILIZATION WITH PUTRID
0-3KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS REGION. A FEW SHRA LATE TONIGHT ASSOCD WITH
MINOR SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM/CURRENTLY NEAR KMSP. LULL TO LIKELY FAVOR
STRONG MID/LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION TO COINCIDE WITH ARRIVAL
OF SIGNIFICANTLY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WITH STRONG TSRA
AND ASSOCD INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE WIND EVENT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TOWARD END OF FORECAST PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

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