Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
718 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AS WELL AS STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

BOUNDARIES ARE EVERYWHERE. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES OVER ILLINOIS
AND MUCH OF INDIANA ARE WELL OVER 4000 J/KG. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE HAVE RECOVERED AND
NOW SEEING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. EVENSO HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SUGGEST AND THIS IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR THAT THE CAP IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT
THIS TIME.

ADDITIONALLY THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF CIRRUS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
AS WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS HAS
CREATED SEVERAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE STARTED
TO SHOW UP IN HAND ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE FIELDS.

WITHOUT ANY PRONOUNCED TRIGGERING MECHANISMS...CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP AND THOSE STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED...QUICKLY
DISSIPATE. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS
CONVECTION FORMS OVER ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN...EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION
SPREAD EASTWARD...SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING.

AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS POP/WX/QPF TRENDS IN PLACE AND
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED JET MAX ENTERING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THIS WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE TROF INTO THE
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN US. PRIOR TO THAT...THE SURFACE TROF/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PREDICATED ON
THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...THE SEVERE FOCUS MAY ACTUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

12Z ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REMAINED IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WRT PATTERN CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ANOMALOUS/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE
WITH DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY AND BUILDING WESTERN NOAM RIDGE. THE RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE
A TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...CYCLONIC FLOW WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES UNDER
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDER...MAINLY LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

INSTABILITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
STORMS BEGINNING TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. FORCING IS LIMITED
THOUGH AND CONVECTION REMAINS SCATTERED SO FAR. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE REGION WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WITH ONLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA. GIVEN
ROUGHLY 3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS BUT CONFIDENCE
IN ONE OF THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINALS IS LOW.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH VERY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
BUT STEADY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES MVFR OR HIGHER.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1003 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-261415-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1003 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013 /903 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FROM THE WEST...INTENSIFY
AND MOVE RAPIDLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE STORMS
STRENGTHEN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-261415-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1003 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

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