Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER CWA UNTIL TOMORROW. HPC SAYS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. THAT LOOKS GOOD WITH CONVECTION AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ALL OVER THE PLACE.

DROPPED TEMPS A BIT...CLOSER TO GUIDANCE. THIS BECAUSE OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

POSSIBLE MCS SHOULD BE ON IT/S WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE
WX BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SOME LINGERING LOW POPS WILL REMAIN
IN IT/S WAKE AS THE ATMOS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND WEAK INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT. LOWS TONIGHT 68-72.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES GRADUALLY FALL...SO THERE
SHOULD BE A REDUCTION IN THE HEAT/HUMIDITY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE DIMINISHING AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO
SMALL CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THEY MAY BE PULLED IF THE
DRIER TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

EURO AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND PERHAPS A BROAD
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OUT OF CHARACTER FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT
WITH RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WILL
MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION. K INDEX PROGS SUGGEST
THUNDER POTENTIAL BASICALLY EACH PERIOD...SO UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE
THUNDER CHANCES THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
BE MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THIS EVENING.  A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF KHUF WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
BEST TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT KHUF AND
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ELSEWHERE.  WILL MENTION VCTS
MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING.  OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
VFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE THE RULE LATE TONIGHT AS GROUND WILL BE WET.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS AFTER MID MORNING. A FEW
STORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER COVERAGE AND CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE AT TAF SITE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY.  WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT WEST TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1029 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-271430-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1029 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAIN.

HAZARDS: FLASH FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

TIMING: TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION: A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AT
TIMES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

JK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
113 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

INZ051-060-067-261745-
KNOX-SULLIVAN-VIGO-
113 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KNOX...SULLIVAN AND
SOUTHERN VIGO COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 110 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARSHALL TO ROBINSON
TO 14 MILES WEST OF CHAUNCEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SULLIVAN...
  MEROM...
  GRAYSVILLE...
  PRAIRIE CREEK...
  FAIRBANKS...
  TURTLE CREEK RESERVOIR...
  PIMENTO...
  SHELBURN...
  FARMERSBURG...
  CARLISLE...
  PAXTON...
  OAKTOWN...
  HYMERA...
  DUGGER...
  PLEASANTVILLE...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3917 8765 3922 8758 3931 8762 3936 8753
      3929 8725 3890 8723 3877 8751 3885 8753
      3886 8756 3896 8752 3898 8758 3906 8758
      3908 8762 3910 8762 3911 8766 3912 8764
      3913 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 288DEG 27KT 3933 8765 3902 8768
          3884 8809

MRD/JK