Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NEW YORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TO WESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN
THE MOIST MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. RADAR SHOWS SOME TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW UPSTREAM.
THE FIRST OVER NW ILLINOIS...A SECOND OVER OVER WISCONSIN
STRETCHING INTO IOWA...AND A THIRD...MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM PUSHING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM CANADA. SPC MESO PAGES SHOW GREAT CAPE IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NIGHT WILL BE POPS. WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ALREADY...AND SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING LOTS OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RESULTING IN GOOD HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...NO
REASON NOT TO EXPECTED COVERAGE OF TSRA TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE
PASSES. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT
TSRA AS PLENTY OF CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN. THUS WILL USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN WILL
TREND LOWS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.

SHEAR APPEARS LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FURTHERMORE WITH PLENTY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ONGOING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...PEOPLE NEED TO REMEMBER THAT WHEN THUNDER ROARS GO
INDOORS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL POPS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST ALLOWING THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVES TO SPILL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRONGEST SHORT
WAVE...CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AFTER EXPECTED CONVECTION TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD BE NEEDED TO START CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS WILL BE HAPPY TO
OBLIGE...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW
GOOD CONVERGENCE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY....BUT EVEN BETTER DYNAMICS LOOK TO APPEAR ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONGER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE INCREASES.
THUS WILL FOCUS POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...RAISING POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS. A NICE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NEAR
20-22C. WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE.
STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ON SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS AS CHANGE OF AIRMASS
WILL BE UNDERWAY.

MODELS COMING TO A BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY...PUSHING MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND FORCING SE OF INDIANA
BY 12Z MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
ONGOING IN THE COLUMN AND THAT TREND CONTINUES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS INDIANA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW RESUMES. WILL TREND HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STICK CLOSE ON MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGHOUT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
COUPLE OF SURFACE HIGHS LOOK TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY HAVE TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL EARLY ON BEFORE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL LATER
IN THE PERIOD AND SOME OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WARMTH WORKS ITS WAY
EASTWARD. ALLBLEND SHOWS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT AND SEE
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
KIND. THE PASSAGE OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT JUST AFTER 312100Z TO THE NORTHEAST. AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE
IN THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF KIND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AFTER THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES FROM FOG BURN OFF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR WITHIN
POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. UNFORTUNATELY PINNING DOWN TIMING
AND LOCATION AT THIS POINT IS A LONG SHOT WITH SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. BASED OFF
BEST VERTICAL MOTION IN TIME HEIGHTS WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE SITES. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE SITES BUT COULD STILL BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY MORNING SO SITES BESIDES
KLAF MAY NOT SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
440 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

INZ028>030-035>037-039-043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-011000-
WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-HAMILTON-
VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-
OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
440 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HEAT INDICES TO 100. WHEN
THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.

TIMING: SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AND AN
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING A CHANCE FOR STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON SUNDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 IN
SOME AREAS.

DISCUSSION: HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-031-038-040>042-011000-
CARROLL-HOWARD-TIPTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-
440 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

HAZARDS: GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.

TIMING: STORMS ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AND AN
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING A CHANCE FOR STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON SUNDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 IN
SOME AREAS.

DISCUSSION: HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
515 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

INZ047-312200-
MARION-
515 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BROWNSBURG...OR 10 MILES WEST OF INDIANAPOLIS...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  INDIANAPOLIS...
  SPEEDWAY...
  BEECH GROVE...
  LAWRENCE...
  WYNNEDALE...
  SPRING HILL...
  CROWS NEST...
  ROCKY RIPPLE...
  MERIDIAN HILLS...
  NORTH CROWS NEST...
  BROAD RIPPLE...
  MONUMENT CIRCLE...
  INDIANA STATE FAIRGROUNDS...
  CASTLETON...
  WARREN PARK...
  GEIST RESERVOIR...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 8594 3987 8595 3964 8595 3964 8601
      3975 8633 3987 8633 3993 8596 3993 8594
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 285DEG 16KT 3979 8630

LEE/KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
516 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             COVINGTON               40.14N  87.39W
08/31/2013  E0.25 INCH       FOUNTAIN           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
524 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             INDIANAPOLIS            39.78N  86.15W
08/31/2013  E0.88 INCH       MARION             IN   PUBLIC

            LOCATED AT RAYMOND AND FRANKLIN ROADS

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
526 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             INDIANAPOLIS            39.78N  86.15W
08/31/2013  E0.88 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50 MPH WINDS

&&

BHH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
543 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             CLERMONT                39.82N  86.32W
08/31/2013  E1.00 INCH       MARION             IN   PUBLIC

&&

BHH