River Flood Warning 188, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

0815Z UPDATE...OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE
SW HALF OF THE CWA...INCLUDING MARION COUNTY UNTIL 9AM THIS
MORNING. PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS...WHICH HAVE REALLY DROPPED IN
EARNEST IN THE LAST HOUR...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW NEEDED FOR
THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SINCE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HELP OF AN MCS...HAVE A SWATH OF 4
TO 6 INCH ESTIMATED RAINFALL FROM NEAR KHUF SOUTHEAST INTO GREENE
AND NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTIES. WILL BE CANCELING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WITH MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE RAIN ENDED EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. LAST FLOOD WARNING OVER THE KHUF AREA AND VCTY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 430 AM.

ALL OF THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-70...COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IS
ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AT THIS HOUR. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH TO GRIDS...WITH PATCHY MENTIONED
ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG IS
NEEDED.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY.
RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ACROSS THE
WRN COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED CLOSER TO COOLER MET MOS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES GRADUALLY FALL...SO THERE
SHOULD BE A REDUCTION IN THE HEAT/HUMIDITY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SAT WHEN A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...PERHAPS RETROGRADING LATER IN THE PERIOD. ALLBLEND
APPEARS TO BE HITTING POPS SLIGHTLY TOO HARD...SO HAVE REDUCED TO NO
LATER THAN 40 POPS DURING THE DAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. WILL
CARRY THUNDER DURING THE DAY AND JUST SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW CLIMO THROUGHOUT...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS...BUT
WITH LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OWING TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER UNDER THE
LOW. ALLBLEND HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT CU TO
DEVELOP AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS WELL. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO OVER 2000FT AT KIND BY 15Z AND THEN TO VFR BY 16Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VLIFR TO IFR...FLUCTUATING AND BECOMING
MVFR THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING.

WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME BROKEN IN THE LOW VFR RANGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TODAY...BUT ARE TOO LOW PROBABILITY
FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ043>047-
051>055-060>064-067>071.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

INZ021-028>031-035>039-043>047-051-052-281000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-
VIGO-CLAY-
938 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

TIMING: THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AT
TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ040>042-048-049-053>057-060>065-067>072-281000-
MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HANCOCK-HENRY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-
SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-
DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
938 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

HAZARDS: DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TIMING: FOG THROUGH 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AT
TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH