River Flood Warning 181, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1029 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 923 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT/S WHEN THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER OUT...A DRY FORECAST
WILL RETURN NEXT TUESDAY WHEN RIDGING ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL...BUT SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

CENTRAL INDIANA JUST ABOUT ALL DRY AS OF THIS HOUR AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THAT/S WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO ENTER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE EURO IS CURRENTLY A TAD
FASTER THAN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM. THE
BEST COMPROMISE FOR NOW SEEMED TO BE TO HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL
SAT 18Z...AND THEN INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS AFTER SUN 00Z WHEN
ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STRENGTHENS.

THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THAT MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON. AS A RESULT...STUCK
CLOSE TO ALLBLEND. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
INCREASES OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TONIGHT TO UPPER 60S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT OF THE
CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA OVER
THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SIMILAR
IN SLIDING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASING OFF THE GULF AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER POPS TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ALLBLEND HANDLED THIS WELL BUT SEEMED TO
HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS TOO LONG TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
CONSIDERING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CHARGE. THUS...PULLED POPS
AFTER TUESDAY PER COORDINATION WITH LOT.

REGIONAL INITIALIZATION TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH FAR NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 131500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW BAND OF SC ACRS THE TAF SITES
DIVING SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ONLY LAST 2-3 MORE HOURS AS THE SC
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE EAST DEPARTS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR BKN CIGS AROUND 4000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN OUR EXPECTED CCL/S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...LEFT VCTS IN AT
IND THROUGH 13Z...OTHERWISE NO MENTION NEEDED AT THE OTHER SITES.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR AN IND-BMG BY ISSUANCE TIME...SO WENT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 21 KNOTS THROUGH 02Z
AND THEN NORTH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF/TDUD
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
916 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-141330-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
916 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: LOCALIZED FLOODING.

HAZARDS: FLOODING.

TIMING: THROUGH MAINLY LATE MORNING.

DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OCCURRING SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE BUT LIGHTNING IS A HAZARD
IN ALL THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION: LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TRIGGER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE KOKOMO             40.43N  86.08W
06/13/2013                   HOWARD             IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

&&

DRT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1048 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NE LAFAYETTE          40.49N  86.77W
06/12/2013                   TIPPECANOE         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED NEAR BUCK CREEK VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT. TREE
            DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED IN COLBURN NEARBY BUCK CREEK.

&&

DRT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1050 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SSW SHELBYVILLE       39.40N  85.84W
06/13/2013                   SHELBY             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED NEAR CR150W AND CR900S.

&&

DRT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1051 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NE LAFAYETTE          40.49N  86.77W
06/12/2013                   TIPPECANOE         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED NEAR BUCK CREEK VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT. TREE
            DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED IN COLBURN NEARBY BUCK CREEK.

1104 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSSVILLE               40.42N  86.60W
06/12/2013                   CLINTON            IN   STORM CHASER

            TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS. ALONG HWY 421. 6 IN DIAMTER.
            REPORT VIA TWITTER.

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 WNW KOKOMO           40.53N  86.31W
06/12/2013                   HOWARD             IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

1126 PM     HAIL             DELPHI                  40.58N  86.67W
06/12/2013  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE KOKOMO             40.43N  86.08W
06/13/2013                   HOWARD             IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

1245 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ELWOOD                  40.28N  85.84W
06/13/2013  U0.00 INCH       MADISON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER COVERING STREETS. RAIN IS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO
            ABOUT 30 FEET.

0255 AM     FLOOD            MUNCIE                  40.20N  85.39W
06/13/2013                   DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING. 2 FEET OFF WATER UNDER THE MADISON
            STREET OVERPASS.

0637 AM     HAIL             LAWRENCE                39.87N  85.99W
06/13/2013  M1.00 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0640 AM     HAIL             LAWRENCE                39.87N  85.99W
06/13/2013  E1.25 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL AT 52ND AND MITTHOEFFER. TIME ESTIMATED. REPORT
            VIA TWITTER.

0750 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SSW SHELBYVILLE       39.40N  85.84W
06/13/2013                   SHELBY             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED NEAR CR150W AND CR900S.

&&

DRT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1116 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NNW DELPHI            40.69N  86.73W
06/12/2013                   CARROLL            IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

&&

DRT