Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND SE
IL TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE IL RIVER (MODERATE RISK OVER
EASTERN IL). 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE WABASH RIVER BY 00Z/7 PM EARLY THIS
EVENING. SO SPC HAS TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE
RISK AREAS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO TONIGHT
OVER CENTRAL IL (THOUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF I-55).
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN IL WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS 25-35 MPH AND AND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE IL RIVER VALLEY WITH AS MUCH AS 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN
REPORTED SINCE WED AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD TO JUST SE OF THE IL RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONNECTED
TO DEEPENING 1000 MB LOW IN NE MO AND DEEPENING 999 MB LOW OVER
EASTERN OK. TEMPS CONTRAST FROM 51F AT GALESBURG TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH OF I-72 IN THE WARM SECTOR. VERY MOIST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO AS HIGH AS 15-30 MPH IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GUSTS OF 25-40
MPH.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TO EJECT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FROM EASTERN OK NE INTO NW IL BY NOON AND INTO CENTRAL
LAKE MI BY SUNSET AND DEEPEN TO 995 MB. STRONG COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL MO AND EASTERN OK TO SWEEP EAST OVER IL THIS AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE WABASH RIVER BY 00Z/7 PM. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN/SE IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS TODAY EAST OF THE IL RIVER WITH MODERATE RISK EAST
OF A CHAMPAIGN TO SHELBYVILLE LINE WHERE 10% OR GREATER RISK OF
EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADOES AND 45% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH AND 15% RISK OF LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER 1.5 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM I-55 NW. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN IL WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
SO WILL HAVE WIND ADVISORY TOO IN EASTERN IL. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80F OVER EASTERN IL. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL BEHIND COLD
FRONT DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT WORKING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST SO HAVE DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE
NIGHT STARTING IN THE WEST THIS EVENING AND IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EAST INTO IL FRIDAY AS STRONG
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IL AND COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY FRI MORNING. BUT PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT IF
IT HAPPENS AND COULD BE A TRACE EVENT. STRONG WEST WINDS FRIDAY
AND MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F.

1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT
DIMINISHING THE CLOUDS AND WINDS TOWARD OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S CENTRAL IL AND MID 30S SE IL. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF IL SAT AFTERNOON AND COOL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTING A WARMUP. WEAK SHORT WAVES TO MOVE
INTO IL LATER SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW OF THE
IL RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AS FAR EAST AS I-55 SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO RETURN TO CENTRAL/SE IL MON-WED...
AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NATIONS
HEARTLAND BY TUE. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO EJECT NE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WED.
THIS TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE/WED.
STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
MILDER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY AND COOLER TO LOW TO
MID 50S FOR HIGHS WED. LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
WED NIGHT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013
EVEN THOUGH MODELS MOVING THE STORMS THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...THE NEXT 6 HRS GOING TO BE EXTENSIVE RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...AND SCT THUNDER. ENOUGH THUNDER BACK IN THE POST FRONTAL
PRECIP SHIELD THAT KEEPING IT IN PREDOMINANT GROUPS THROUGH 18Z.
MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THE TS IF THE FRONT LINE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
AND PULL OUT TO THE EAST. BEYOND THAT...BRIEF LINE OF MVFR/VFR
JUST BEHIND THE PRECIP IN THE OBS...BUT BORDERLINE AT THAT...AND
ITS PERSISTENCE IS QUESTIONABLE. JUST BEYOND THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY...THE CIGS DROP TO IFR/LIFR BREAK. CONSIDERING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING
AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN...AND SATURATED AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WILL LIKELY KEEP VERY LOW STRATUS/REDUCED VIS/DRIZZLE IN ILX
TERMINALS.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ038-043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047>051.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ILZ044>046-052>057-
061.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
506 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-191100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
506 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER
TODAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF
DITCHES...LOW LYING ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF THE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT ALREADY FELL
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY SINCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ILLINOIS...SPOON AND
MACKINAW RIVERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MAJOR FLOODING
OF THE SPOON RIVER POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER TODAY.

ILZ042-047>051-191100-
CASS-LOGAN-MENARD-MORGAN-SANGAMON-SCOTT-
506 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE TODAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF
DITCHES...LOW LYING ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
WITH FLOODING DEVELOPING ON PARTS OF THE SANGAMON RIVER AT PETERSBURG
AND OAKFORD AND ON THE SALT CREEK AT GREENVIEW THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

ILZ038-043-191100-
DE WITT-MCLEAN-
506 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST BY SUNSET. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE SEVERE TODAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF DITCHES...LOW LYING ROADS...
UNDERPASSES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061-191100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
506 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE TODAY...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER AND STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION STRONG
SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF DITCHES...LOW LYING
ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SANGAMON RIVER AT MONTICELLO IS EXPECTED TO BE IN FLOOD THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE VERMILION
RIVER AT DANVILLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-191100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
506 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MID EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER AND STRONG TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CLAY CITY AND THE EMBARRAS RIVER AT
LAWRENCEVILLE AND STE MARIE IS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

07

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