Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Lincoln, IL

088 
WWUS53 KILX 210109
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
809 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ILC171-210119-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130521T0130Z/
SCOTT IL-
809 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 54 AND 57.

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4014 8996 4013 8989 3995 8955 3956 9006
      3960 9023 3975 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 219DEG 50KT 3984 9000

$$

ILC017-129-137-167-210130-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130521T0130Z/
MENARD IL-MORGAN IL-SANGAMON IL-CASS IL-
809 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
CASS...NORTHWESTERN SANGAMON...MORGAN AND MENARD COUNTIES UNTIL 830
PM CDT...

AT 808 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ASHLAND...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHLAND...PLEASANT PLAINS...TALLULA...PETERSBURG...ATHENS...
FARMINGDALE...NEWMANSVILLE...SALISBURY...LINCOLNS NEW SALEM...
ATTERBERRY...OAKFORD AND CANTRALL.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 87.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4014 8996 4013 8989 3995 8955 3956 9006
      3960 9023 3975 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 219DEG 50KT 3984 9000

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HJS

773 
WWUS53 KILX 210132
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
832 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ILC017-129-137-167-210141-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130521T0130Z/
MENARD IL-MORGAN IL-SANGAMON IL-CASS IL-
832 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CASS...NORTHWESTERN 
SANGAMON...MORGAN AND MENARD COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS 
OF CASS...MORGAN...AND MENARD COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM.

LAT...LON 4014 8996 4013 8989 3995 8955 3956 9006
      3960 9023 3975 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 219DEG 50KT 3984 9000

$$

HJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
222 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 222 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS...WITH RAIN
CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
MID WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE STARTED OUT THE AFTERNOON A BIT MORE STABLE THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. MUCAPE VALUES ARE IN AROUND 500 J/KG
WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OF 150-200 J/KG. SFC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
ARE ON THE RISE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL JET WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD STILL TO NOSE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY EVENING.
THE ONSET OF SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED DUE TO THE TIME
IT WILL TAKE FOR THE INGREDIENTS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE
EVOLUTION SHOULD BE FOR DISCREET SUPERCELLS FORMING IN MISSOURI
AND ADVANCING EAST ALONG THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM SW TO NE.
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE PLAINS WILL EVOLVE TO MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THAT WILL HELP THE
SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR SETUP, WITH STRAIGHT-
LINE AND DOWNBURST WINDS MORE LIKELY. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO AMBIENT VORTICITY NEAR PRE-EXISTING
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ALL OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

THE EVENING HOURS LOOK TO BE OUR PRIMARY SEVERE WINDOW...WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND IN SEVERE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE STORMS HEAD INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE 4KM HRRR IS DEPICTING THE NW HALF OF OUR
AREA TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS...WITH LINEAR STORM
SEGMENTS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF...AND A
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT BUT STILL PRESENT.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND RESULTANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR STORMS
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...WHEN THE WAVE WILL MOVES
INTO WESTERN IL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ACROSS EASTERN MO
AND SW IL IN THE EVENING AND PROGRESS TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WE
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF I-55...BASED ON THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND LOCATION OF THE 850 MB LLJ.

STORMS SHOULD BE PRIMARY EAST OF OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVANCES INTO IL. VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WILL BE
ROTATING ACROSS ILLINOIS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
WESTERN IL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
LOWS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THE AXIS OF THE ELEVATED COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS IL AROUND MID-DAY THURSDAY. LAPSE
RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN
THE HEAT OF THE DAY...WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM CHANNELED VORTICITY
IN THE LEE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE
UPPER 40S NORTH OF A LINE FROM RUSHVILLE TO LINCOLN TO CHAMPAIGN.
DESPITE SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
AROUND 70 IN MOST OF THE AREA.

THE 00Z/20 ECMWF HAD A WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST...WITH A DRY
FORECAST FROM THE 00Z/GFS. THEY APPEAR TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED THE
FORECAST WITH THE 12Z VERSIONS. THE 12Z GFS NOW SHOWING RAIN
CHANCES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF STILL HAS
SOME RAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. THE ALLBLEND HAS BASICALLY KEPT SOME
MENTION OF RAIN DUE TO THE PRESENT SIGNAL FROM AT LEAST ONE MODEL
EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN THEME REMAINS THAT A WAVE OF
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT FOR LINGERING RAIN REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

SHIMON
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1246 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY WILL TRACK E/NE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CONVECTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AND ARRIVE AT KSPI BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. ITS EVOLUTION BEYOND THAT
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS AFTER 21Z AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30KT. MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
FOCUS THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORMS DURING THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AT KPIA AND BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z FURTHER EAST
AT KCMI. AFTER THAT...MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A DRY TUESDAY MORNING.

BARNES
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
410 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ILZ036-040-041-047-049-050-211100-
CASS-FULTON-MASON-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
410 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM AROUND HAVANA
DOWNSTREAM...MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
8 PM AND 2 AM.

ILZ027>031-037-038-042-043-048-051>053-211100-
CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-MENARD-PEORIA-
SANGAMON-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
410 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
6 PM AND 2 AM.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-211100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
410 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI WILL MOVE
INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD
FURTHER EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
10 PM AND 4 AM.

BARNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
717 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ILZ029-031-036-037-041-042-210115-
FULTON-LOGAN-MASON-PEORIA-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
717 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FULTON...EASTERN MASON...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN PEORIA...TAZEWELL AND WESTERN
WOODFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 713 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF ST.
DAVID TO EASTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GLASFORD...
  MANITO...
  HANNA CITY...
  SAN JOSE...
  BELLEVUE...
  BARTONVILLE...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BANNER...GOOFY RIDGE...TOPEKA...
POPLAR CITY...FOREST CITY AND UNION.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4092 8947 4092 8940 4048 8929 4032 8957
      4032 8960 4030 8960 4013 8990 4014 8993
      4013 8994 4051 9003 4097 8947 4097 8945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 222DEG 37KT 4053 8989 4022 8983

HJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
733 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ILZ027-210115-
KNOX-
733 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM
CDT...

AT 731 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GALESBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WATAGA...
  RIO...
  ONEIDA...
  ALTONA...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...GALESBURG AIRPORT...EAST GALESBURG
AND HENDERSON.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4115 8999 4104 8999 4085 9035 4092 9045
      4107 9045 4116 9038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 216DEG 32KT 4097 9039

HJS