River Flood Warning 48, NWS Lincoln, IL

013 
WGUS83 KILX 030236
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  SANGAMON RIVER AT MONTICELLO AFFECTING PIATT COUNTY 
  SANGAMON RIVER AT RIVERTON AFFECTING SANGAMON COUNTY 
  SANGAMON RIVER AT PETERSBURG AFFECTING MENARD COUNTY 
  SANGAMON RIVER NEAR OAKFORD AFFECTING CASS...MASON AND MENARD 
  COUNTIES 
  SANGAMON RIVER NEAR CHANDLERVILLE AFFECTING CASS AND MASON COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION...SOIL 
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILX  /LOWER CASE/.

&&

ILC147-031636-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-130605T0000Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.130602T2315Z.130603T1800Z.130604T1800Z.NO/
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SANGAMON RIVER AT MONTICELLO. 
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT  845 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.3 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL AREAS BEGINS.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED

SANGAMON RIVER
 MONTICELLO        13  13.0 SUN 9 PM    13.2   13.2   12.5



$$

ILC167-031636-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-130604T0359Z/
/RVTI2.1.ER.130602T1833Z.130603T1200Z.130603T2159Z.NO/
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SANGAMON RIVER AT RIVERTON. 
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  845 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.3 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW 
  AFTERNOON.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED

SANGAMON RIVER
 RIVERTON          23  23.1 SUN 9 PM    23.3   21.9   20.5



$$

ILC129-031636-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0049.130603T1930Z-130606T2159Z/
/PETI2.1.ER.130603T1930Z.130605T0600Z.130606T1559Z.NO/
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SANGAMON RIVER AT PETERSBURG. 
* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  915 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 23.8 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...EXTENSIVE AGRICULTURAL AND LOWLAND FLOODING 
  OCCURS.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED

SANGAMON RIVER
 PETERSBURG        23  21.8 SUN 9 PM    22.5   23.6   23.8



$$

ILC017-125-129-031636-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-130606T1500Z/
/OKFI2.1.ER.130601T2145Z.130603T1800Z.130606T0900Z.NO/
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SANGAMON RIVER NEAR OAKFORD. 
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  845 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 471.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 471.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 471.9 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 471.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS NOT 
  PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED

SANGAMON RIVER
 OAKFORD           471  471.6 SUN 9 PM   471.8  471.8  471.4



$$

ILC017-125-031636-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-130609T0159Z/
/CDLI2.2.ER.130603T0122Z.130603T1200Z.130608T1959Z.UU/
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SANGAMON RIVER NEAR CHANDLERVILLE. 
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT  900 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 458.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 456.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 459.0 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED

SANGAMON RIVER
 CHANDLERVILLE     457  458.9 SUN 9 PM   459.0  459.0  458.8



$$

643 
WGUS83 KILX 031429
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
929 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
ILLINOIS...
 
  SANGAMON RIVER AT RIVERTON AFFECTING SANGAMON COUNTY

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION...SOIL 
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILX  /LOWER CASE/.

&&

ILC167-031459-
/O.CAN.KILX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-130604T0359Z/
/RVTI2.1.ER.130602T1833Z.130603T0130Z.130603T0819Z.NO/
929 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SANGAMON RIVER AT RIVERTON.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 330 AM MONDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 21.5 FEET BY TOMORROW
  MORNING.

&&

                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6 AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    TUE    WED    THU

SANGAMON RIVER
 RIVERTON          23  22.8 MON 9 AM    21.5   20.3   19.4

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
216 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 205 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAKING FOR A RATHER
GLOOMY EARLY JUNE DAY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LATEST SURFACE MAP
INDICATES THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACRS THE AREA LAST EVENING
HAS SHIFTED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY WAS STRETCHING FROM NW
INDIANA WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF KANKAKEE TO JUST NORTH OF
PONTIAC...WITH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE READINGS IN OUR AREA WERE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A COUPLE OF QUIET DAYS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RENEWED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
WEST...AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH
OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WEST. NAM-WRF
AND THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE IDEA OF CLEARING ACRS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE CU FIELD MORE CELLULAR IN
NATURE TO OUR NORTH WITH THE AREA DRIFTING SOUTH...SO WILL TRY
TO COMPROMISE WITH THE IDEA OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE
NORTH WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...WHILE OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...OUR COOLEST TEMPS WILL
BE ACRS THE NORTH...WITH THE NUMBERS BUMPED UP JUST ABOVE GUID
VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
CU (THAT IS ASSUMING WE CAN SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTH AND CLEAR OUT MONDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH). OTHERWISE...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE TRANQUIL INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
DOMINATES OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY A BIT TRICKY WITH GUID
SUGGESTING QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACRS THE WEST KEEPING
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. THIS MAY ALSO BE SOME OF THE MODELS HANGING
ON TO THE CLOUDS INTO MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH
SOME CLEARING ACRS THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND SOME DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL
NIGHT AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF WITH SOME AREAS SEEING UPEPR 40S AGAIN FOR EARLY
MORNING LOWS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS
THE PLAINS. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY GET INTO OUR WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE 500 MB TROF SLOWLY PROGRESSES ACRS THE REGION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

VERY UNSUMMER LIKE PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE UPPER WAVE THAT AFFECTS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EDGES EAST ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER WAVE. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO NEXT
WEEKENDS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE CLOSED
500 MB LOW SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH
FLATTER WITH THE 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS IT TAKES THE
OPEN WAVE MAINLY ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP ANY
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACRS THE WEST HALF AND THEN
BRING IN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE.

SMITH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...DUE TO QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING TIMING OF POTENTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT. CURRENT
SATELLITE AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDESPREAD BLANKET OF MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLOSEST APPRECIABLE CLEARING
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN IOWA. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT THE CLOUD SHIELD SOUTHEASTWARD...HOWEVER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...SLOWING
THE EXIT OF THE CLOUDS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HANG
ON TO A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500FT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...SUGGESTING CLOUDS MAY HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HRRR CEILING FORECAST SHOWS CLOUDS DISSIPATING AT THE
TAF SITES...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE S/SE
KILX CWA AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND/OR VEER TO E/NE. GIVEN HRRR
FORECAST AND THE APPEARANCE THAT MUCH OF THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER
ACROSS IOWA IS DIURNAL/CELLULAR...HAVE SCATTERED CEILINGS AT
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. IF PARTIAL
CLEARING DOES INDEED OCCUR TONIGHT...IT WILL SHORT-LIVED...AS
HIGHLY NEGATIVE CU-RULE SUGGESTS BKN CEILINGS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BARNES
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ051.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-031100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE ALONG THE MACKINAW AND SPOON RIVERS BY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-052>057-061-031100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE ALONG MUCH OF THE SANGAMON RIVER FROM
MONTICELLO TO OAKFORD BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM
AT CHANDLERVILLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ051-031100-
SANGAMON-
1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DUE TO WATER RELEASE FROM LAKE SPRINGFIELD...FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG SUGAR CREEK DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SPAULDING DAM
TODAY. NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...AND NO FLASH FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN SANGAMON COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE ALONG MUCH OF THE SANGAMON RIVER FROM
MONTICELLO TO OAKFORD BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM
AT CHANDLERVILLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-031100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WABASH...LITTLE WABASH...AND EMBARRAS RIVERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES