Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
711 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE ERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY STILL
DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST. DEEP RIDGE OVER THE WRN
HALF OF THE CONUS AND ALMOST STRAIGHT NRLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
WITH THE VERY AMPLIFIED FLOW. SERIES OF SMALL WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...IN ADDITION TO ALMOST DAILY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS RESULTS IN A RATHER WET FORECAST OVERALL...AT LEAST FOR
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...EVEN IF THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
SLOWER OVERALL WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
FOR THE MOST PART... MON AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY. TEMPS RATHER MILD IN THE MID 70S AND NORTHERLY
WINDS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TOMORROW ALMOST IDENTICAL WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE ALMOST RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
FCST AREA. GFS IS FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION OF
THE CLOSED LOW CENTER AT H5...THE ECMWF BEING MORE SUBTLE. THE NAM
HAS OPENED THE WAVE AT THAT POINT...BUT THE WOBBLE WEST IS STILL
THERE. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TS FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY STILL A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE LOW STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. MODELS FINALLY MOVING
THE LOW ON THURSDAY...WITH DIMINISHING POPS FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. POPS RETURNING ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW AS IT
IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE PATTERN LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
LOW. WITH THE MODELS SLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND
NO SIGNIFICANT KICKER...CONCERNED THE PATTERN SHIFT IS NOT YET A
GOOD DEPICTION. NEXT FEW RUNS WILL HELP SOLIDIFY THE PICTURE...BUT
EITHER WAY...SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO
TIME OF YEAR ALONE...MUCH LESS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT.

STANLEY

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
FOR THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY DEC AND CMI. SPI AND BMI
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS BUBBLE UP DURING PEAK HEATING AS WELL. WE
LEFT PIA DRY FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS THEY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TO ESCAPE MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CU RULES SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR VFR
CLOUDS TO AT LEAST REACH BKN050 COVERAGE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PIA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING JUST
SCT050.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER
DURING MIXING BRINGS DOWN GUSTS TO 22-24KT AT TIMES.

SHIMON
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-021100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
605 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
SUNSET. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW...BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...PEA SIZE
HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.

FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
DOWNSTREAM OF PEORIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061-021100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
605 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MID
EVENING. THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE COLD AIR FUNNELS...GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF STORMS WILL RETURN
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-021100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
605 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW... BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE COLD AIR FUNNELS... BRIEF
HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVER LOW LYING ROADS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE EMBARRAS RIVER AT
LAWRENCEVILLE UNTIL MID WEEK. FLOODING ON THE LITTLE WABASH
RIVER WILL CONTINUE AT CLAY CITY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHIMON