Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Lincoln, IL

253 
WGUS73 KILX 270244
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
944 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

ILC095-270930-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130527T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KNOX IL-
944 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 430 AM
CDT MONDAY...

AT 941 PM CDT...A WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTED MULTIPLE
SECONDARY ROADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WERE FLOODED.  ANOTHER BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
GALESBURG...ABINGDON...ALTONA...GILSON...KNOXVILLE...MAQUON...
ONEIDA...RIO...VICTORIA...WATAGA...WILLIAMSFIELD AND YATES CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 9000 4083 8998 4072 8999 4071 9042
      4115 9044 4116 9044

$$

778 
WGUS73 KILX 270927
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
427 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

ILC095-270941-
/O.EXP.KILX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130527T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KNOX IL-
427 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR KNOX COUNTY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 430 AM CDT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
FOR CONTINUED ROAD FLOODING ACROSS KNOX COUNTY. 

IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW  
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4115 9000 4083 8998 4072 8999 4071 9042
      4115 9044 4116 9044

$$

SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
PROLONGED RAINY PERIOD CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS
MORNING SHOWERS LINED UP AND REMAINED OVER ONE AREA STRETCHING
FROM JUST SOUTH OF GALESBURG SOUTHEAST TO SHELBYVILLE. AREAS ALONG
THIS AXIS RECD BTWN 2.5 AND 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS BTWN 1 AND 1.5. WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY...CONCERN
INCREASES FOR FLASH FLOODING THREAT. MANY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN
THE SHORT TERM FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS.
WITH THE CONVECTIVE RISK AS THE EVENING GOES ON...WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A FF WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...FORECAST INTO THE LONG TERM IS
STILL A CONFLICT OF SYNOPTIC WAVE PATTERNS AT DAY 6/7. FORECAST
OUT THAT FAR A BLEND...WITH CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO UNCERTAINTY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...
PLENTY OF PRECIP IN THE CWA THIS MORNING SLOWLY BROKE INTO PIECES
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS RETURNING WITH
TS IN THE SW. RAP/RUC AND 4KM WRF SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES
WITH THE EVOLUTION GOING INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH BOTH PRODUCING
SOME RATHER EXTENSIVE QPF. WITH STREAK OF HEAVY PRECIP ALREADY
FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS FROM SOUTH OF GALESBURG TO
SHELBYVILLE...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...AND A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE STORMS THIS EVENING POTENTIALLY BUMPING
UP THOSE TOTALS LOCALLY...ISSUING A FF WATCH FOR AFFECTED
COUNTIES. WOULD BE LESS CONCERNED DUE TO THE OVERALL DURATION OF
THE EVENT...BUT 6HR FFG IN THE 2-2.5 INCH RANGE...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT ON A HOLIDAY WEEKEND TIP THE SCALE. LONGEVITY
OF PRECIP TOMORROW EVENING VERY MUCH A FUNCTION OF LOCATION OF THE
PASSING WARM FRONT...AND HAVE TERMINATED THE WATCH AT THIS POINT
AT 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP...THIS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND BRINGING WARMER TEMPS IN THE REGION...WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN
AT MIDLEVELS AS THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES SOMEWHAT.
WARM FRONT FORWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE REGION MAY BE TEMPERED QUITE A BIT BY
RAIN COOLED AIR AS THE RAIN/CONVECTION GOES ON ALL DAY. VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND HIGHS WILL BE REACHED AT VARYING POINTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STORMS/CLOUDS ARE. IN
SHORT...FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC IN AN HOURLY SENSE TO SAY THE
LEAST. THOUGH WARMER THAN TODAY...KEEPING THE TEMPS A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE...AND THE GEMNH HAS ACTUALLY PROVIDED A VERY POSSIBLE
SOLUTION CONSIDERING THE GRADIENT FROM NE TO SW.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION BTWN COLD POOLS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY...LOCATION
OF THE SFC WARM FRONT A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK ON TUESDAY MORNING.
POPS REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTH...INVOF THE BOUNDARY.
FORECAST ACTUALLY DRY FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.  WESTERN
TROF DIGS IN...AMPLIFYING THE WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AND
LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN SWRLY FLOW...AND MUCH OF IL IN WEAK
FLOW...IF ANY...UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. VERY WARM MIDLEVELS AND
THE GUIDANCE STARTING TO REFLECT THE SITUATION A LITTLE BETTER. RETURNING
POPS ON THURS NIGHT/FRI SHOWING MORE OF A DELAY THAN THE 00Z
RUN...AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW CYCLES. A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE FOR
THUR NIGHT...AND FRIDAY SPECIFICALLY...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
FRI NIGHT. STILL A DEBATE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF QUITE DIFFERENT IN
HANDLING THE LARGE SCALE WAVE IN RELATION TO THE SFC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

COVERAGE OF TSRA OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
AFFECT ON CIGS/VSBYS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MO INTO FAR SOUTHERN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS
OF CONVECTION WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
WILL TRACK ESE ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH
ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OCCURRING AND TRACKING
ESE AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...AFFECT MAINLY OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES
TONIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THE MORE FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE RESTRICTED DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES AND
POSSIBLY SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSRA.
WILL SEE A TEMPORARY BREAK DEVELOP IN THE SHOWERS AFTR 16Z TOMORROW
BUT WILL ADD A VCTS GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL IL.

SFC WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KTS...AND THEN START
TO VEER MORE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE TO OUR NORTH BY LATER IN THE DAY...SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 KTS ONCE AGAIN.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ILZ027-036-040>042-
047-048-051>053-061.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
324 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

ILZ027-036-040-041-047-271100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MASON-SCHUYLER-
324 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING... WITH
WIDESPREAD STORMS OVERNIGHT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. MUCH OF THE
AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVIER RAIN THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF ROADS.

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SPOON RIVER
OVERNIGHT...WITH RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING AGAIN ALONG THE ILLINOIS
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MEMORIAL DAY...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
AGAIN BE A CONCERN. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
HAIL. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOST
STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOODING ON THE SPOON RIVER SHOULD SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
REPORTS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

ILZ028>031-037-038-271100-
MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
324 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MEMORIAL DAY...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
AGAIN BE A CONCERN. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
HAIL. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOST
STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
REPORTS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

ILZ049-050-271100-
MORGAN-SCOTT-
324 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING...
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

RIVER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER
EARLY THIS WEEK. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE NEAR VALLEY
CITY...AND MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MID WEEK AROUND MEREDOSIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ042-048-051>053-061-271100-
CHRISTIAN-LOGAN-MACON-MENARD-SANGAMON-SHELBY-
324 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING... WITH
WIDESPREAD STORMS OVERNIGHT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
REPORTS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

ILZ043>046-054>057-271100-
CHAMPAIGN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-PIATT-VERMILION-
324 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT... WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF A DECATUR TO PARIS LINE. THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON MONDAY. WHILE THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-271100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
324 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD
NOT BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY...
BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK...MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
346 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N ABINGDON            40.82N 90.40W
05/26/2013  M1.61 INCH       KNOX               IL   MESONET

            TOTAL SINCE SATURDAY MORNING. SWOP REPORT

&&

GEELHART