Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND THEN STALL
OUT THIS WEEKEND. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AT
TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO SETTLE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TSTM CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS WE APPROACH MAX HEATING AND AS SUBTLE
LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE H5 LOW IN SRN CANADA. IT LOOKS
LIKE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE FROM NR
RID-DAY/MGY-ILN...SO RAN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS THE SUNSET...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/ OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...CANT RULE OUT A CHC OF CONVECTION
ANYTIME DURING THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS WILL MANAGE TO STAY IN THE MID 60S. WENT A
BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW A DISTINCT H5 TROF ROTATING AROUND THE H5 LOW SATURDAY
MORNING INTO IL/IN. IN RESPONSE TO THIS H5 SUPPORT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE OHIO VALLEY. AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING ON
SATURDAY...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD CAUSE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
QUICKLY RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE.

H5 LOW CLOSES OFF OVER INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING AN
ELONGATE TROF AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP GOOD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR COOL DAY TOMORROW...RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 SE. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE EVEN
COOLER WITH THE HIGHS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 70S NW TO THE MID/PR 70S SE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED BUT
DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH OVERHEAD...EXPECT A
DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SLOWING WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN A WINDOW WHEN STORMS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY AND INCLUDED VCTS FOR THAT PERIOD. AS THE SITUATION
EVOLVES WILL AMEND IF CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTING A TERMINAL BECOMES
GREATER OR TIMING CHANGES.

APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THESE CEILINGS COULD START
AT MVFR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
550 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>098-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077-078-291000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-
LOGAN-UNION OH-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-
WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-
550 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ099-100-OHZ046-054>056-063>065-073-074-079>082-088-291000-
MASON-LEWIS-DELAWARE-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
550 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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