Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Wilmington, OH

057 
WWUS51 KILN 301229
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
729 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

OHC049-089-301245-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130130T1245Z/
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING OH-
729 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EST
FOR WESTERN LICKING AND EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO...

AT 725 AM EST...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GAHANNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PATASKALA...BEECHWOOD TRAILS AND JOHNSTOWN.

IN ADDITION...JERSEY...STATE ROUTE 310 AT STATE ROUTE 161 AND
ALEXANDRIA ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 8255 3994 8274 3994 8281 3991 8281
      3988 8290 4005 8292 4022 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 1229Z 239DEG 50KT 4004 8276

$$
ASL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM TO SHIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THREATS OF STRONG WINDS...SEVERE STORMS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING A RAPID TEMPERATURE
FALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
SLIDING THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A VERY COLD...BRISK FRIDAY IS ON TAP...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MUCH TIME TO TYPE AS QLCS IS BEARING DOWN THE WFO ILN FORECAST
AREA...DUE INTO OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS AROUND 330 AM WITH THREATS
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO. RECENT
SWOMCD FROM SPC SUGGESTS WATCH EXPANSION INTO MUCH OF THE WFO ILN
FORECAST AREA SOON.

30.00Z RAOBS AND VWPS TO OUR WEST CLEARLY SAMPLED THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND DEEP/SHARP TROUGH AND STRONG WIND FIELDS THAT ARE
APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH 150+ 500MB HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE
LAST 12 HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AN EJECTING MID LEVEL
/500MB/ JET STREAK MEASURING WELL OVER 100KTS. THIS IS INDUCING AN
EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM THAT IS TRANSLATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND ATOP A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS WHERE THE ROBUST QLCS HAS
DEVELOPED. SFC PRESSURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY MAINTAINING A MORE
SLY SFC FLOW AS OF THIS HOUR. VWPS AND RAOBS HAVE SAMPLED 70+ KTS
OF FLOW AT 850MB INCLUDING IN THE LOCAL AREA...SO THERE IS CLEARLY
AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN/ABOVE THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE
LATE JANUARY TEMPS HAVE BEEN RECORD BREAKING OR NEAR RECORD
BREAKING. THIS ALL COMBINES TO SUGGEST THAT QLCS TO OUR WEST WILL
BE MAINTAINED INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PART OF THE WFO
ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ATTENDANT THREATS OF SEVERE WIND AND
A BRIEF QLCS SPIN-UP. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LIGHTNING COUNTS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ON THE DECREASE OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS...AND
CONVECTION IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH BARELY 30DBZ TO 15KFT FROM KILN
RADAR SAMPLING STORMS WEST OF INDIANAPOLIS. DESPITE THESE ANEMIC
OBSERVATIONAL FEATURES...AND NOT TO MENTION THE EXTREMELY MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE MLCAPE FIELD /100 J/KG/...THE FORCING AND ANOMALOUS
SURFACE TEMP/DWPT FIELD IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
THREAT INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DO NOT SEE AN OVERLY STRONG FLOOD THREAT...LINE IS PROGRESSIVE AT
35 MPH AND 50 DBZ ECHO IS NARROW/FINE...WITH STRATIFORM RAIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE LINE. SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE FLOOD HEADLINES WITH
THIS FORECAST.

WILL CERTAINLY SEE GRADIENT/SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE...SUCH THAT WE MAY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...BUT GIVEN WINDS WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WILL NOT
ISSUE WIND ADVISORY AND HANDLE ANY BRIEF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

EXPECT CONVECTIVE LINE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 9 AM AT THE
LATEST...AND REMAINDER OF DAY WILL BE SPENT IN LULL BEHIND THE
CONVECTIVE LINE BUT AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE REMAINING WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH
CONTINUED LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT SLAMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH
BEGINNING OF RAPID TEMP DROP...AND RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BUT DON/T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE WIDESPREAD. MAY CREATE
SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL HOWEVER WITH THE FALLING TEMPS. WIND GUSTS
THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT COULD REACH 35 TO 40
MPH.

INSIDE SLIDER TYPE SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT AND MOST DETERMINISTIC DATA
SETS BRINGING A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES EXIST...HOWEVER...ON WHERE THIS
STRIPE OF SNOW OCCURS...AND WHILE SNOW CHANCES WERE INCREASED IN
THE FORECAST...WAS HESITANT TO GET TOO BULLISH YET UNTIL WE GET A
LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT. SYSTEM HAS SOME UPSIDE IN TERMS OF A SWATH OF
ADVISORY- LEVEL SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...GIVEN RATHER DECENT
Q/G FORCING AND NICE LEFT EXIT JET FORCING AS THE SPEED MAX DRIVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BEARS WATCHING.
OTHERWISE...VERY COLD IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY
WITH LOW WIND CHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO START
THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE ILN CWA BY FRIDAY...SO NO POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST.

THE AIR MASS ON FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CWA RANGING FROM -16 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS. STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES INDICATE THESE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL...NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE ARCTIC AIR LAST WEEK...BUT
STILL RATHER COLD. MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED
SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE RAW GFS.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS GOOD THROUGH MONDAY. ON MONDAY AND
LATER...GFSE SPREADS BECOME FAIRLY LARGE...WITH LESS CERTAINTY IN
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE
REGION.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WITH SOME INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...POPS WERE INCREASED WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
WHOLE CWA. VERIFYING AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS...THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING...THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN OR
SNOW...WITH NOTHING INDICATING ICY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH THE TAFS ATTM...WITH ONLY
CMH/LCK TO GO. EXPECT A GUST AROUND 40KT WITH THE LINE BETWEEN 12Z-13Z.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND DONT EXPECT
ANY LIGHTNING AS IT MOS THROUGH CMH/LCK.

DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CONVECTION...WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NW
ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LINGERING RA FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NW AHEAD OF THE MAIN CDFNT BY LATE
MORNING IN THE W AND EARLY AFTN IN THE E.

STRONG CDFNT REACHES THE WRN TAFS AROUND 00Z. THE CAA BEHIND THE
FNT WILL PULL DOWN STRONG AIR ALOFT. EXPECT GUSTS AGAIN OVER 35
KTS POST FRONTAL. ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS CIGS WILL DROP BACK
TO MVFR AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHRA.

OUTLOOK...BREEZY INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
320 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-310830-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
320 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. A FEW SEVERE STORMS...OR EVEN A BRIEF ISOLATED
TORNADO...REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES AND MINOR FLOODING AS
THE STORMS PASS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH. SNOW SHOWERS...AND FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET
MAY YIELD SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN A FEW AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH ON LOCATIONS SEEING THE BEST THREAT OF THE SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT AMOUNTS...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW AND AN
INCREASE IN WIND.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
MORNING FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LINE
OF STORMS PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
704 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KDLZ DELAWARE APT       40.28N 83.11W
01/30/2013  M34 MPH          DELAWARE           OH   AWOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
705 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 AM     TSTM WND GST     KHOC HILLSBORO APT      39.19N 83.54W
01/30/2013  M43.00 MPH       HIGHLAND           OH   AWOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
706 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 AM     TSTM WND GST     KFGX FLEMING-MASON APT  38.54N 83.74W
01/30/2013  M47 MPH          MASON              KY   AWOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
709 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 AM     TSTM WND GST     KFGX FLEMING-MASON APT  38.54N 83.74W
01/30/2013  M54.00 MPH       MASON              KY   AWOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
711 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 AM     TSTM WND GST     KOSU OSU AIRPORT        40.08N 83.07W
01/30/2013  M38 MPH          FRANKLIN           OH   ASOS

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
713 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

OHZ046-055-056-064-065-073-074-301315-
DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FRANKLIN OH-HOCKING OH-LICKING OH-
PICKAWAY OH-ROSS OH-
713 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
ROSS...PICKAWAY...LICKING...HOCKING...FRANKLIN...FAIRFIELD AND
EASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 AM EST...

MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT HAVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...BUT THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED SUDDEN STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WHICH MAY CAUSE
MINOR TREE DAMAGE...AND CAUSE LOOSE ITEMS TO BE BLOWN ABOUT. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...COLUMBUS...
WILLIAMSPORT...MINERVA PARK...WESTERVILLE...BEXLEY...SUNBURY...SOUTH
BLOOMFIELD...GAHANNA...ASHVILLE...GROVEPORT...CIRCLEVILLE AND LOGAN
ELM VILLAGE.

ALSO...CLARKSBURG...FRANKFORT...HUBER RIDGE...GALENA...LOCKBOURNE...
OBETZ...OLIVE GREEN AND DUVALL ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3947 8216 3947 8227 3938 8229 3934 8337
      3981 8315 4042 8300 4042 8293 4036 8292
      4035 8275 4028 8274 4024 8219 3995 8219
      3991 8224 3993 8246 3984 8247 3983 8239
      3975 8240 3974 8236 3960 8237 3956 8216

ASL