Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
823 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROVIDING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PARTS OF THE AREA ARE EXPERIENCING A BRIEF LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THERE IS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS ON
WHERE EXACTLY THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE HOWEVER
GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL SEE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WITH A SHARP CUT OFF IN THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
POSSIBLE ON THE VERY FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. CONTINUED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
THEREFORE LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
HAVING THUNDERSTORMS AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THERE THIS EVENING.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLOUD
COVER PERSISTING ACROSS THE FA. WENT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS. ADDITIONAL MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS SE PORTIONS
OF THE FA.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN WITH STACKED HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...AND A GRADUALLY-WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERLY
STREAM OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE THE
SITUATION BEGINS TO CHANGE AND THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVE TO THE EAST. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A RESPECTABLE
AMOUNT OF UPPER SUPPORT STILL SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF WIDESPREAD (AND
POSSIBLY HEAVY) RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS ON FRIDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIMING WILL REMAIN
WHERE IT IS FOR NOW...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THE THREAT COULD
EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER IN TIME (INTO SATURDAY)...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

AS OPPOSED TO MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO...RECENT RUNS SHOW
THE END-OF-WEEK PATTERN BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY MORE QUICKLY. THE
HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TAIL OFF CONSIDERABLY
AFTER SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE CWA (ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN CWA) IN
AN AREA UNFAVORABLE FOR LIFT BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

IF THERE IS A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT LAST LONG. BY
MONDAY...A CONVERGENT ZONE WILL SET UP EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL...WITH QUICK WESTERLY WINDS SETTING UP NEAR
(OR JUST NORTH OF) THE ILN CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO RISE...AND WITH INSTABILITY
BUILDING EACH DAY...THIS PATTERN LOOKS RATHER CONVECTIVE. THE
ECMWF/GFS RUNS TODAY SHOW A BIT OF CONTINUITY WITH EACH OTHER WITH
REGARD TO AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE BATCH ON MONDAY...WITH VERY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
POPS NEXT WEEK ARE STILL SOMEWHAT TRENDED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...BUT
ENHANCED ON MONDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES IN THE QUICK FLOW WILL END UP HAVING LARGE SHORT-TERM
INFLUENCES ON PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES (IN EITHER DIRECTION FROM
THE STANDARD DIURNAL CURVE).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE LLJET BRINGS A
VERY MOIST PLUME OF AIR TO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GULF. A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE RAIN IS GOING TO GO THE WAYSIDE THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTION WORKS ITS WAY NORTH FROM CENTRAL KY. SOME SHOWERS ARE
DEEP ENOUGH IN THIS AREA TO BE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL LIKELY
AFFECT SOUTHWEST OHIO AND MAJORITY OF TAF SITES LATER THIS
EVENING.

MODELS SHOW THE BEST PLUME TO BE IN AND AROUND THE CVG/DAY
CORRIDOR INCLUDING SOUTHEAST INDIANA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY PREVAIL
FOR A TIME TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR RICHMOND WIHT COPIOUS RAINFALL IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BUT DROP WHEN RAIN COMES IN AND
SATURATES THE ALREADY MOIST LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

THINK THAT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...LINGERING BR MAY
OCCUR UNTIL THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN COMES IN FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-052015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
413 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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