Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. DISTURBANCES SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA TONIGHT BUT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. DROPPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SHOULD BE JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER INDIANA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTBY RANGING FROM AROUND 900 J/KG IN THE
EXTREME SW TO AROUND 700 J/KG OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SFC TROF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND THEN DROP SOUTH SLIGHLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTNUE WITH
POPS IN LKLY CATEGORY SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN DROP THESE POPS INTO
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNIING. SUNDAYS HIGHS
LOOK TO BE 5 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S W TO LOWER 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND OPEN UP THROUGH THE WEEK.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT COVERAGE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
LESSEN THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES DOWN
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...BUT
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY ENHANCED SO EXPECT TO SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY TAF OVERNIGHT....BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS STILL OVERHEAD...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME PCPN COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WILL LEAN PESSIMISTIC AND ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP LATE. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PARKER
NEAR TERM...PARKER
SHORT TERM...PARKER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
518 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-300930-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
518 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

OHZ046-055-056-292115-
DELAWARE OH-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING OH-
443 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN LICKING...NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 437 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUBER
RIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND WESTERN LICKING
COUNTIES...INCLUDING NEW ALBANY AND CENTER VILLAGE.

LAT...LON 4021 8280 4009 8264 4002 8287 4009 8293

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

OHZ045-292115-
UNION OH-
447 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH
515 PM EDT...

AT 445 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SOMERSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...RICHWOOD.

ALSO...ESSEX IS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4050 8341 4050 8326 4037 8326 4034 8348
      4042 8352

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
513 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

OHZ045-046-292145-
DELAWARE OH-UNION OH-
513 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL UNION AND NORTHWESTERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAGNETIC
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
UNION AND NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES...INCLUDING MAGNETIC SPRINGS
AND RADNOR.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4044 8312 4034 8312 4029 8328 4039 8338
      4045 8324

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
554 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

OHZ051-053-060>062-292245-
CLARK OH-GREENE OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-PREBLE OH-
554 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PREBLE...NORTHERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN MIAMI...NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND WESTERN CLARK
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EXTENDING FROM BROOKVILLE EASTWARD TO NEAR HUBER
HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...HUBER HEIGHTS...
WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB...FAIRBORN...ENON AND YELLOW SPRINGS.

ALSO...RIVERSIDE...BRANDT...PARK LAYNE...MEDWAY...CRYSTAL LAKES...
HOLIDAY VALLEY...DONNELSVILLE...GREEN MEADOWS AND SNYDERVILLE ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3992 8456 3992 8443 3993 8443 3993 8389
      3978 8388 3977 8456

ASL

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