Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1156 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1156 PM UPDATE >
PER COORDINATION WITH NWS CLE AND SPC...WE WILL ALLOW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362 TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ILN COUNTIES) WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERN
SEGMENT OF THE DECAYING MCS IN INDIANA HAS BEEN VERY WEAK IN
TERMS OF WINDS...WITH NO SIGNS OF RESTRENGTHENING AS OF NOW. THIS
WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN ILN COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FA THIS
EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IS A COMPLEX
OF STORMS MOVING IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TOWARDS THE SE AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS EVENING. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR TO THE SE THIS FEATURE WILL TURN.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND ALSO IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA WITH
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DICTATE DAY TO DAY WEATHER...AND THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH CONVECTION
TENDING TO FIRE UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIE DOWN AT NIGHT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR THURSDAY...A POTENT SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST WILL BRING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL OHIO...WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IS LESS CERTAIN
THEREAFTER. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NEXT TUESDAY WHEN DRIER AIR MAY
WORK IN AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE IN
STORE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND WEAK
COLD ADVECTION RESULT IN A COOLER THERMAL REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED TO PROVIDE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
BLYR CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPED GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST VIS SATL
IMGRY SHOWS UNIMPRESSIVE CU FIELD ACRS SRN AND WESTERN OHIO. WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING
HAVE STARTED THE TAFS VFR AND PRECIP FREE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACRS IL MAY COME TOGETHER AS A LINE OR CLUSTERS OF
STORMS IN THE 04-08Z TIME FRAME. HAVE A TEMPO MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR THESE STORMS AND HAVE A MENTION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE
GUSTS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST THINKING
THAT AFTER THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS THERE IS A LOW ENOUGH CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF VCTS WED AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST UP
TO 22 KTS ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
752 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>072-074-077-078-270000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-
DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-
752 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY FROM
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THREATS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KYZ097>100-OHZ073-079>082-088-270000-
BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ROSS-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
752 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY FROM
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THREATS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1231 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

INZ073>075-260515-
OHIO IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-
1231 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RIPLEY...WESTERN DEARBORN AND
OHIO COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM EDT...

AT 1229 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLTON...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...OSGOOD...VERSAILLES...
MILAN...MOORES HILL AND DILLSBORO.

ALSO...HOLTON...NEW MARION...REXVILLE...OTTER VILLAGE...BENHAM...
VERSAILLES LAKE...OLEAN...CROSS PLAINS...FRIENDSHIP AND FARMERS
RETREAT ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3918 8544 3927 8491 3892 8499 3892 8514
      3893 8514 3893 8520 3892 8521 3891 8545

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1240 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

OHZ026-044-045-260515-
HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-UNION OH-
1240 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN UNION...LOGAN AND
SOUTHERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM EDT...

AT 1233 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR LEWISTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 45 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BELLEFONTAINE...BELLE
CENTER AND WEST MANSFIELD.

ALSO...HUNTSVILLE...ROUNDHEAD...VALLEY HI...ZANESFIELD...
PICKRELLTOWN...NORTHWOOD...NEW JERUSALEM...RUSHSYLVANIA...MIDDLEBURG
AND EAST LIBERTY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4052 8341 4030 8351 4026 8390 4027 8398
      4056 8387 4060 8341

ASL