Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
223 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF CONVECTION IN ERN INDIANA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK
EASTWARD. SOME SCT SHRA ARE OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP ACROSS OH.
EXPECT THE INDIANA CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WORK E AND BECOME
MORE BROKEN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POPS UP ACROSS THE FA.
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE W.

DID LOWER THE TEMPERATURES IN THE W DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
PCPN. HELD THE W IN THE 70S...WHILE THE E WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EJECTING ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE EASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER LOW LEVEL
JET MAX THAT WILL WORK EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH 06Z. AS A
RESULT...WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED LINE/AREA OF CONVECTION
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS IS BEING
SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WE LOSE SOME OF THE BETTER
INSTABILITIES.

EXPECT DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
STRENGTHENING 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE
     AND WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PWS WILL PUSH
UP INTO THE 1.75 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCH RANGE...WHICH IS ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT..SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

DRIER AIR AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THIS WEEK
ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID
50S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NEXT UPR LVL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION SHOULD ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. ATTM...IT LOOKS LIKE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
MOISTURE IN A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW BY THURSDAY. HAVE BROUGHT IN
LOW CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODIFY/WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE OHIO-INDIANA BORDER FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TAFS AS MID LEVEL ENERGY WORKS E THOUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ADDED A TEMPO
TSRA WITH MVFR CONDITION FROM 18-22Z TO COVER THIS. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS PROVIDE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS
HOLD THINGS TOGETHER...WILL OTHERS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION.
LEANED TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AND LET THE CONVECTION DISSIPATE AFT
02Z. THE AS ANOTHER H5 S/W SWINGS UP THE OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...ADDED VCTS THUNDER TO THE TAFS BEGINNING BETWEEN 10-12Z
IN THE W. LOOKS LIKE BETTER MORE ORGANIZED LINE COMES IN AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
240 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KYZ098>100-OHZ046-055-056-064-065-073-074-081-082-088-011845-
ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DELAWARE-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
240 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN
ADDITION...THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY MOIST...SO THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-
051>054-060>063-070>072-077>080-011845-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-
MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
240 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO
AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN
ADDITION...THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY MOIST...SO THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

HATZOS

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