Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL
SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHERN OHIO. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GOOD
PLACEMENT OF NEAR TERM WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. BELIEVE SHRA/TSRA WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED/ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH OF CURRENT WATCH. PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT AND AXIS OF PRECIP WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WEST TOWARD
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS AREA THURSDAY AND THEN TO THE EAST
THURSDAY EVENING. THINKING IS DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA LINE WITH
FRONT IN THE MORNING WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE MORE
WIDESPEAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND SHRA AND STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. SHRA/TSRA TAPERING OFF AND ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY EVENING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. COOLER TEMPS AND
AGAIN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY IS CAA WITH CLOUDS RETURNING AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHRA. HAVE TROUBLE GOING WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND
WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FCST TREND OF COOLER HIGHS. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND WIND TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
FREEZE OR EVEN FROST AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR
ANY POSSIBLE HEADLINES NEEDED IN THE SOUTH WITH FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM STARTED IN THIS AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO QUICKLY MODERATE AS FLOW TURNS AROUND
TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND THIS COULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
IS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH...STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHERN OHIO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OFF TO OUR WEST DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA HAS RECOVERED FROM
THE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH ML CAPES NOW PUSHING 2000
J/KG. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY EAST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE TO
REMAIN ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL PUT KDAY...KCMH AND KLCK ON THE EDGE OF SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STILL
SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR IF ANY THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT PCPN CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT. EITHER WAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS WORK INTO THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...PADGETT
SHORT TERM...PADGETT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1047 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
111500-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
1047 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THESE
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>082-088-111500-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1047 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THESE
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
404 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 S BOTKINS             40.44N 84.18W
04/10/2013  E1.25 INCH       SHELBY             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             3 NNW ANNA              40.44N 84.19W
04/10/2013  M1.50 INCH       SHELBY             OH   COCORAHS

&&

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             LAKEVIEW                40.49N 83.93W
04/10/2013  E0.88 INCH       LOGAN              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL HAIL

&&

BINAU

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
517 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

INZ050-OHZ042-060-102145-
WAYNE IN-DARKE OH-PREBLE OH-
517 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PREBLE...
SOUTHWESTERN DARKE AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...

AT 517 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...FOUNTAIN CITY AND NEW
MADISON.

ALSO...MIDDLEBORO...WHITEWATER...BETHEL...HOLLANSBURG...ELDORADO...
PALESTINE...SHARPEYE AND CASTINE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4001 8496 4001 8482 4008 8482 4011 8475
      3992 8458 3985 8503 3996 8508